EUR/USD has remained trapped in relatively narrow ranges with the pair resisting losses despite a lack of yield support with consolidation near 1.1100 on Tuesday.
The ECB will announce a package of support measures at the September policy meeting, potentially with an interest rate cut and a fresh package of government bond purchases. German benchmark bond yields remain at record lows. The euro will gain some support if the measures are seen as supportive for growth.
The Federal Reserve will also cut interest rates at the September meeting with the most likely outcome another 0.25% reduction in rates to 2.00%.
US interest rates will remain the highest for a major economy even after a further cut which will provide an element of dollar support.
Political factors will also play a key role in the short term with net volatility set to surge, especially as currency values can be driven to a very important extent by sentiment.
In this context, persistent attacks on the Federal Reserve by President Trump are likely to have an increasingly corrosive impact onteh US dollar as market sentiment deteriorates.
If the Fed eases monetary policy, it will be seen as bowing to political pressure while refusal to cut rates would increase the ferocity of Trump's attacks.
The US Administration efforts to push the dollar down are also likely to intensify and any direct intervention would trigger very sharp losses, potentially pushing EUR/USD to near 1.2000.
Strong populist gains in this weekend's German state elections could damage the euro initially, although losses for the CDU would tend to galvanise Chancellor Merkel into backing fiscal stimulus.
Brexit developments will determine the euro's trajectory. If there is any suggestion of a breakthrough in talks with the UK, the euro will find support, while any no-deal would weaken the single currency.
Technically, EUR/USD will need to hold above 1.1050 to neutralise the threat of fresh 2-year lows with strong short-term resistance near 1.1200.
今天,儘管金價從每盎司3300美元的水準反彈,但顯示出日內看空的勢頭。對美元需求的增強仍然是壓制金價的主要因素,限制其上升空間。
在BTC/USD平靜的表面之下,隱藏著湍急的海底暗流,正在重塑加密貨幣市場結構。 靜水流深。
週一,USD/CAD 貨幣對連續第二天持續上升。這一增長是由多種因素推動的。
GBP/USD 這一貨幣對在新的一周開始時,試圖維持在1.3600這一關鍵心理水平。然而,由於基本因素混雜,目前尚未成功。
不確定性通常是投資的敵人,但在2025年卻不是這樣。地緣政治和白宮關稅帶來的雙重不可預測性,並未阻止S&P 500指數多次創下歷史新高。
週一很少有宏觀經濟資料發佈,而且都不重要。我們回顧一下,週五幾乎算是半個假日,因為美國慶祝獨立日。
在星期五,英鎊兌美元貨幣對整體保持近乎持平,因當天美國交易時段基本上未有活動。沒有任何宏觀經濟數據發布,市場選擇推遲對基本面的反應。
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