The EUR/USD pair extended its downside movement and now is trading at 1.0954 at the time of writing. You knew from my previous analysis that the currency pair could register a larger drop. DXY's rally forced the USD to appreciate versus its rivals.
Fundamentally, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Prices, and Construction Spending indicators reported better than expected data yesterday, that's why the USD rallied. Today, the Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate and Core CPI Flash Estimate came in line with expectations, while Final Manufacturing PMI and German Final Manufacturing PMI came in better than expected.
On the other hand, the USD was punished by the JOLTS Job Openings and by Factory Orders figures.
Technically, the price dropped below 1.0964 former low after retesting the broken uptrend line. Still, the currency pair could increase again after poor US economic data. It has dropped as much as 1.0942 today, registering a new low, but it has failed to stay below the weekly S1 (1.0950).
The uptrend line and the downtrend line represent the immediate resistance levels. As long as it stays below these obstacles, the EUR/USD pair could resume its drop.
Coming back below the S1 (1.0950) and making a new lower low, a bearish closure below 1.0942 activates further drop and represents a bearish signal.
昨天的主要事件大體符合我們的預測——特別是預期中的「數字遊戲」發生了。但這項調整做得非常巧妙,恰好足以阻止反美元貨幣的增長。
在日線圖上,英鎊已經在MACD線下方盤整。它本有良好的機會也在1.3635的支撐位下方盤整,但這次嘗試未能成功,略微複雜化了空頭進一步進展的形勢。
天然氣 (NG) 日平衡指標線果斷阻止了昨日的價格飆升——週四以下跌2.63%收盤。此跌幅則被MACD線所限制。
週三,歐元/美元匯率從1.1802水準反彈,向有利於美元的方向逆轉,並顯示出輕微的下跌。然而,到週四早晨,此匯率又回升至1.1802水準。
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