Risk appetite surged after San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she wants to avoid an economic downturn caused by too-tight monetary policy. The news led to a strong growth of US stock indices, which is similar to what happened earlier, when Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that he doubts the need to continue an aggressive rate hike. Such a reaction shows the desire of market players to buy risky assets after a sharp fall in the local stock market.
However, it is too early to be certain on the direction of the market as most of Fed representatives continue to declare the need to maintain the current course of active interest rate increases. Most likely, before the meeting of the central bank, markets will move without a specific direction, reacting to news and rumors about future actions on interest rates, as well as to the quarterly reports of companies.
So far, there is growing opinion that after a 75bp increase in November, the US central bank will start to reduce the pace of rate increases. This belief was strengthened further by the recent statement of Christopher Waller, which hinted that the increase in December may no longer be 0.75% or 0.50%. But again, a lot will depend on the behavior of inflation.
As for the dynamics today, trading on the stock markets in Europe may turn down, while dollar will grow against yen and other major currencies.
Forecasts for today:
EURUSD
The pair failed to overcome 0.9875. If it holds below it, expect a decline to 0.9750.
USD/JPY
The pair is actively recovering after a strong fall last Friday. Its rise and consolidation above 149.00 may lead to a growth to 150.00.
今天,歐元/美元組合正試圖吸引買家。儘管歐洲央行於周四決定維持利率不變,但由於貿易談判的不確定性持續存在,歐元正面臨阻力。
美國股市已經完全消除了恐懼。VIX波動率指數跌至自二月初以來的最低水平,而標準普爾500指數又創下新高——這是過去19個交易日中的第十次。
週五預定的宏觀經濟報告相對較少,但都相當重要。在德國,將公佈IFO商業氣候指數——這是當天中影響力最小的報告。
週四,歐元/美元貨幣對繼續上漲。當天有幾個宏觀經濟事件排定,它們如我們預期地引發了小幅市場反應。
歐洲央行在七月底的會議上,如預期般地維持所有貨幣政策參數不變,履行了基本且最被預期的情境。市場參與者對於七月份會議的正式結果不以為意。
並未出現「賣出事實」的反應。近期歐元/美元上漲的原因之一是市場預期歐洲中央銀行在7月會議後將存款利率維持在2%。
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