As we delve into the technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair for December 11, 2023, significant market shifts are underway. The EUR is on a downward trajectory, with key support levels shattered. We explore the factors steering this movement and their global implications.
Key Takeaways: EUR/USD Analysis (December 11, 2023)
Euro Dynamics and ECB Expectations
European equities rise amid speculations of the ECB initiating interest rate cuts. Germany's inflation slowdown has played a pivotal role, evidenced by a 2.3% y.o.y. increase in consumer prices in November. However, month-on-month, prices dipped by 0.4%. Energy product costs have notably decreased, fostering optimism for an ECB rate cut and propelling the European stock market.
British Inflation and BoE Insights
The Bank of England's quarterly survey reveals a positive outlook among British households, projecting the lowest inflation rate in two years at 3.3%. This optimism is rooted in the aftermath of the Ukraine conflict, with fewer consumers anticipating a rise in interest rates. Only 44% of respondents foresee an increase, marking the largest decline since the Brexit referendum in 2016.
Surprising Strength in US Job Market
In the United States, non-farm payrolls surged by 190,000 in November, exceeding expectations. The healthcare and government sectors spearheaded job additions, contributing 77,000 and 49,000 jobs, respectively. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.7%, accompanied by a remarkable 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings. This unexpected robustness eases recession concerns but may extend the period of higher Fed rates.
US Consumer Sentiment Rebound
The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers reveal a remarkable 13% rise in consumer sentiment in the US for December. This surge erased declines from the preceding four months, driven by improved inflation expectations. Both short- and long-term business outlooks witnessed a boost of over 24%, surpassing all forecasts. This optimistic shift in household perspectives on inflation is the most significant in 22 years.
Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair has encountered a bearish trajectory, breaching the crucial technical support at 1.0748. Despite a brief rebound from the local low of 1.0724, the bulls face headwinds. Momentum remains weak, signaling the potential for a continued downtrend. Let's dissect the technical indicators and pivotal levels shaping the market outlook.
Technical Support and Resistance:
Weekly Pivot Points: Pivot Points serve as vital markers for trend reversals and support/resistance levels:
Trading Outlook:
Intraday Indicator Analysis:
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週四,歐元兌美元(EUR/USD)匯率橫盤整理。歐洲中央銀行(ECB)會議的結果幾乎沒有影響市場情緒,而會議本身也沒有特別的事件發生。
由於英國面臨的經濟情勢艱難,英鎊持續承受壓力。最新的經濟數據證實了這一點,這自然影響了市場對英鎊的需求。
在最後一刻,歐元放鬆了緊張情緒,放棄嘗試重新測試價格通道的上限。當日收盤價低於日線MACD線,Marlin振蕩器即將進入負值區域。
英鎊未能克服日平衡線的壓力。昨日價格下跌了69個基點,且這一跌勢延續至今天早晨。
美元/日圓貨幣對正顯示出強勁的上升趨勢。在從146.29的支撐位反彈後,價格現正向最近的目標149.38邁進。
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