empty
25.01.2024 04:15 PM
Bitcoin recovers above $40k: local trend reversal?

Over the past three weeks, Bitcoin has been in a correction phase, which should be viewed as a profit-taking cycle after a long and uninterrupted rally. The approval of the spot BTC-ETF was the event that triggered a massive sale of BTC coins, but the current trading week showed that this process might be prolonged and intensified. Despite the strong positions of buyers, the cryptocurrency price broke the $40k level, significantly weakening the structure of the upward trend.

This image is no longer relevant

At the end of yesterday's trading day, the asset managed to recover above $40k, after retesting $38.5k and further recovering to $39k. This event should be seen as a positive sign, however, it remains questionable whether the reversal above $40k will lead to a reversal of the local trend and the end of the correction. Such a possibility exists, but as of January 25, there are too few signals in the market for such a development.

Fundamental factors

Macroeconomic indicators in the USA have shown disheartening growth dynamics in business activity and consumer goods prices. This means that inflation will at least show resilience by the end of January, and at most, the indicator will continue to grow towards 3.5%. At the same time, a significant reduction in the U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter from 4.9% to 2% is expected, which could positively affect investment assets and provoke a decrease in the U.S. dollar index.

This image is no longer relevant

In such a case, markets can expect long-term positivity, as it will most likely mean that the Federal Reserve will begin easing monetary policy earlier than the second half of 2024. The U.S. leading indicators index has been declining for 21 consecutive months, indicating an approaching recession, which can also be interpreted as a signal for a quicker transition to lowering the interest rate. However, if the U.S. GDP turns out to be above 2%, it will provoke a strengthening of the U.S. dollar and a decrease in Bitcoin and other investment assets.

Bitcoin above $40k

The cryptocurrency managed to consolidate and close the previous trading day above $40k. At the moment, the cryptocurrency price reached the $40.5k mark, which now plays the role of a key resistance level. This event indicates high bullish sentiments in the BTC market and increasing buying volumes. Among buyers, it's worth highlighting BlackRock, which purchased an additional 4,079 BTC for its BTC-ETF, bringing the company's total balance to 44,004 BTC worth $1.7 billion.

This image is no longer relevant

Bitcoin has given an important bullish signal, but it's still too early to talk about the end of the local downward trend. If the cryptocurrency manages to hold the $40k level and continue its upward movement towards $40.5k, the chances of a full reversal will significantly increase. However, ideally, the cryptocurrency needs to consolidate above $42k to neutralize selling pressure. As of January 25, there are clearly not enough bullish volumes for such a powerful upward impulse.

This image is no longer relevant

At the same time, the possibility of further downward movement remains. If we assess Bitcoin's growth in terms of an upward correction in the structure of the downward trend, it appears that the cryptocurrency's movement is logical. On the 4H chart, when constructing the correction according to Fibonacci, we see that the asset's price clearly reached the classic zone where the correction ends—between the 0.618 and 0.5 levels. This means that if BTC does not consolidate above $40.5k in the shortest term, another downward impulse will begin, with the potential to reach $37k.

Conclusion

The macroeconomic background is still in a state of uncertainty, as are the financial markets, but a resolution is near. Bitcoin maintains the structure of a downward trend, and if the asset doesn't make a bullish leap above $40.5k in the coming days, the likelihood of a deeper correction with a full plunge below $40k will significantly increase. Much of the situation will depend on the macroeconomic data from the U.S., which can either give BTC another chance for recovery or accelerate the start of a new downward impulse.

Artem Petrenko,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025
赚取InstaTrade的加密货币利率变化
下载MetaTrader 4并开始您的第一笔交易

Recommended Stories

今日聯邦儲備局會議或將提振加密貨幣市場

美國聯邦儲備委員會今日的政策會議可能會對加密貨幣市場提供推動力。即便委員會只是稍微暗示九月可能降息,也足以引起市場反應。

Jakub Novak 13:19 2025-07-30 UTC+2

7月30日加密市場交易建議(北美交易時段)

比特幣穩定維持在 $118,000 以上,顯然瞄準潛在突破 $120,000。以太坊則出現輕微回調,但仍在通道內交易,顯示進一步上行潛力。

Miroslaw Bawulski 13:12 2025-07-30 UTC+2

是時候考慮購買 XRP 嗎?

比特幣和以太坊繼續在相同價位附近交易,市場動態沒有顯著變化。 如果目前的價格使這些資產看起來過於昂貴,也許值得將注意力轉向其他選擇。

Jakub Novak 11:18 2025-07-30 UTC+2

7月30日加密貨幣市場的交易建議

比特幣繼續在狹窄的橫向通道中交易,突破將決定其下一步走勢。以太坊顯示出相同的模式。

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:05 2025-07-30 UTC+2

加密貨幣市場:買家在交易協議中定調,期待美聯儲維持現狀

加密市場的恐懼與貪婪指數目前為73分(滿分100),顯示處於貪婪區域,市場參與者強烈的買入興趣。與此同時,以太坊(ETH)於週一創下2025年的新高。

Jurij Tolin 14:58 2025-07-29 UTC+2

對於比特幣和以太坊的需求依然強勁

當我們觀察加密貨幣市場的修正時,總有一些人會抓住這一時刻,積極購買打折的資產。 根據分析智庫報告,許多公司已經開始在資產負債表上累積比特幣。

Jakub Novak 09:28 2025-07-29 UTC+2

7月29日加密貨幣市場交易建議

比特幣在昨天結束時出現回調,測試了 $117,500 的水平,但今天已經在 $119,000 以上交易,顯示即使在小幅回調期間需求依然強勁。Ethereum 也有顯著回升,交易價格超過 $3,800 並鎖定 $4,000 大關。

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:42 2025-07-29 UTC+2

7月28日加密貨幣市場交易技巧(北美時段)

比特幣再次未能突破並站穩在 $120,000 之上的位置,目前回落至 $119,000 以下。以太坊在試圖突破 $3,900 後也略有回落,但仍然保持在綠色區間內。

Miroslaw Bawulski 14:04 2025-07-28 UTC+2

比特幣迅速恢復勢頭

上週五,我注意到比特幣達到了115,000美元的水平,而在今天的亞洲交易時段,我們已經看到其測試了接近119,800美元的阻力位。這顯示出一個明顯的支撐形成於115,000美元左右,這將成為許多交易者近期的重要參考點。

Jakub Novak 09:58 2025-07-28 UTC+2

7月28日加密貨幣市場的交易建議

比特幣已經收復上週的全部失地,現在距離12萬美元關口僅一步之遙。以太坊也有顯著增長,超過了3900美元關口。

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:29 2025-07-28 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.