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06.05.2025 11:03 AM
USD/CAD:分析與預測
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今天,美元/加元組合仍維持在熟悉的區間內,並未顯示出強勁的買入動能。

美元在連續兩日下跌後的反彈得益於積極的ISM服務業採購經理人指數(PMI)數據,這些數據支持了對美國經濟活動的樂觀預期,但圍繞特朗普總統貿易政策的不確定性使得看漲美元的投資者難以大舉下注。

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由於加元與大宗商品密切相關,應該關注油價的走勢,昨晚美國盤中下跌後,油價顯示出回升跡象。美加貿易協議預期為加元提供支持,從而限制了美元/加元組合的上行空間。據美國總統特朗普所言,加拿大總理Mark Carney本週訪問白宮,正努力達成貿易協議。

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投資者保持謹慎,等待進一步有關未來美聯儲利率政策變動的信號。交易員將關注為期兩日的FOMC貨幣政策會議結果,該結果預計將於周三公布,這將為該貨幣對的走勢指引方向。

為了今天更好的交易機會,建議關注加拿大和美國的經濟數據發布。

就關鍵風險而言,最近的美國宏觀經濟數據已經減輕了對經濟衰退的擔憂,從而支撐美元和美元/加元組合。然而,現貨價格仍接近自2024年10月以來的最低水平,似乎容易延續既有的下降趨勢。

從技術上來看,美元/加元組合仍處於熟悉的區間內,並未顯示出明確的方向。日線圖上的振盪指標仍處於負區域,且遠未到達超賣水平,這強化了看空情緒,並顯示美元/加元組合整體的最小阻力路徑仍然向下。

儘管如此,要更自信地否定進一步損失的可能,應謹慎等待確認價格跌破並持於1.3800以下。隨後的下降趨勢可能會令價格跌至中間支撐1.3740,然後測試1.3700以下的水平。

另一方面,1.3860水平是1.3900之前最近的一個障礙。突破這一阻力可能會引發空頭回補,將美元/加元組合推向1.3955水平。持續在此區域以上波動可能會成為短期內看漲者的觸發點。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

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