07.05.2025 07:33 PM
今天，日元觸及新的日低，促使美元/日元匯率升至接近143.50的水平。此增長是由於美中貿易談判的消息引發了全球積極情緒，而對日元這類傳統避險資產造成了負面影響。
然而，日本央行可能會根據美日貿易談判的結果調整其預測。這可能導致加息，尤其是在日本通脹上升的情況下，這可能支撐遠東貨幣。
儘管如此，對美元的需求依然受限，或將限制美元/日元的上升潛力，因為交易者正迫切等待聯邦公開市場委員會關於貨幣政策的為期兩天會議的結果，預計美聯儲將保持利率不變。
從技術角度看，美元/日元匯率近期在4小時圖的200期簡單移動平均線附近的失敗是看跌信號。此外，日線、每小時以及4小時圖上的振盪器仍處於負值區域，表明美元/日元匯率的最小阻力路徑仍然向下。因此，任何上升都可視作在143.55水平附近的賣出機會，此水平受制於144.00的心理水平。位於此圓整水平之上的是144.25–144.30之間的供應區。如果此區域被突破，可能引發空頭回補反彈，推動即期價格向145.00的心理水平攀升。
另一方面，142.35水平即為週低點，目前在142.00圓整水平之前保護美元/日元免於即時下跌。如果確鑿跌破142.00，將使即期價格進一步下行至141.60附近的下個支撐區域，並可能下探141.00圓整水平。
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