英鎊/美元 在昨天對歐洲央行降息決定及幾乎完成寬鬆周期的短暫樂觀中,英鎊幾乎達到1.3635的目標位。今天開始的氣氛較為中性,顯然是在等待美國就業數據,不過Marlin振盪指標看來一天比一天疲弱。
如果美國數據未能推動英鎊上漲,由於股市接近調整,目標水準1.3834仍將遙不可及。在這裡,關鍵水準是1.3433的支撐位,明天將由Kruzenshtern線突破,並且如果價格能突破此水準,可能會在下週初開始中期下滑。儘管有這些看跌信號,我們仍保持英鎊向1.3806/34目標區間增長的主要情境。
在四小時圖上,價格自5月29日以來沿著MACD線穩步上漲。這種漸進的上漲走勢為未來看跌情緒的可能激活創造了條件。Marlin振盪器在一定範圍內發展,這也預示著這一點。市場顯得疲憊不堪;需要一個觸發因素,而今天它將得到一個。
昨天的主要事件大體符合我們的預測——特別是預期中的「數字遊戲」發生了。但這項調整做得非常巧妙,恰好足以阻止反美元貨幣的增長。
在日線圖上,英鎊已經在MACD線下方盤整。它本有良好的機會也在1.3635的支撐位下方盤整,但這次嘗試未能成功,略微複雜化了空頭進一步進展的形勢。
天然氣 (NG) 日平衡指標線果斷阻止了昨日的價格飆升——週四以下跌2.63%收盤。此跌幅則被MACD線所限制。
週三,歐元/美元匯率從1.1802水準反彈,向有利於美元的方向逆轉,並顯示出輕微的下跌。然而,到週四早晨,此匯率又回升至1.1802水準。
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