歐元/日圓對在今日交易時段中恢復正面動力,逆轉了近期的下滑。歐元受益於美國美元普遍賣出情緒。與此同時,由於東京消費者物價指數數據疲軟,日圓吸引到了日內賣家。
數據顯示,日本零售銷售自二月以來增長最慢,這增強了市場對日本央行可能於2025年不加息的預期。這些因素,加上風險資產市場的積極動態,降低了避險日圓的吸引力,從而加強了對歐元/日圓對的有利展望。
然而,技術面顯示進一步看漲運動的某些限制:日線圖上的相對強弱指數(RSI)接近超買區,這可能會阻礙交易者新長倉的建立。因此,該對可能持續整合。儘管如此,市場偏向仍傾向於看漲,這表明任何回調可能在168.65水平附近獲得支撐。
若明確跌破此支撐將觸發技術性賣盤,為下跌鋪平道路。歐元/日圓對將加速下行至168.00心理水平,至167.60–167.55水平,並最終向167.00這一關鍵整數水平邁進。跌破該水平將使得看跌傾向占上風。
另一方面,169.75水平——週一達到的年度高點——將成為阻力。一旦持續突破該高點並進一步超越170.00心理關口,將被視為多頭的新觸發點,允許歐元/日圓對爬升更高。
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*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。
市場歡迎Jerome Powell在Jackson Hole的演講。但每桶蜜糖總有它的一瓢焦油。
週二預定的宏觀經濟報告非常少。基本上,只有美國耐用品訂單報告比較突出。
在我看來,美國美元如今面臨的威脅遠比可能在9月份的聯儲會降息更大。幾個觀點在市場參與者中已經十分清晰。
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