Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1430 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Despite the upward revision of Eurozone GDP growth for the first quarter to 0.6% from the initial 0.3%, the euro remained neutral. This passivity is linked to the anticipated U.S. data. In the second half of the day, reports will be published on nonfarm payroll changes, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings in the U.S. These three key economic indicators will influence the future direction of currency markets. The condition of the U.S. labor market is known to be a driving force of the global economy. Its metrics serve as a reliable indicator for forecasting the global financial system's outlook. An increase in nonfarm employment signals economic resilience, the ability to create jobs, and rising incomes, which is positive for the dollar. A decline in this figure could indicate a slowdown in economic growth or even a recession.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the price area around 1.1443 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1482. At 1.1482, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 points move from the entry point. Buying the euro today is advisable only after weak U.S. statistics. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1410 price level, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1443 and 1.1482 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1410 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1370, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 points move from the level). Pressure on the pair may return today after strong U.S. statistics. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1443 price level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1410 and 1.1370 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profit can be manually locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profit can be manually locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is better to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.