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12.02.2026 04:35 AM
The GBP/USD currency pair aimed for continued upward movement on Wednesday, even breaking through the 1.3671-1.3681 area. However, the release of US labor market and unemployment reports caused the GBP/USD pair to drop. Essentially, we witnessed only a brief plunge in the British currency, which fully recovered within a few hours. Much as with the euro, the market reacted to the strong US data but made it clear that these figures were not the main reason for its aversion to the US dollar. As we can see, all of the recent strong data from across the ocean did not lead to a significant increase in the dollar. In our view, the issue still lies in Donald Trump's policies.
From a technical standpoint, the formation of a new upward trend on the hourly timeframe remains intact. The price failed to break above the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines, so we do not expect a decline. Two key reports have already been published this week; now we are just waiting for the inflation data. Traders are also expecting a lot from the inflation figures, particularly a slowdown to 2.5%, which should increase the likelihood of a new rate cut after it was lowered on Wednesday. However, we believe that even the Fed's policy in 2026 will not hold significant priority for traders.
On the 5-minute timeframe, several trading signals were formed. During the European trading session, the price overcame the area of 1.3671-1.3681, allowing traders to open long positions. However, by the beginning of the American session, the price had returned to the area of 1.3671-1.3681, and within half an hour, the US reports were set to be released. Therefore, it was better to close the buy trade—there was too much risk ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls. There was no opportunity to capitalize on any sell signal, as the price dropped too sharply. Nonetheless, two bounces off the Ichimoku indicator lines warranted long positions.
The COT reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been changing steadily over the past few years. The red and blue lines representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross each other and are mostly close to the zero mark. Currently, the lines are converging, with non-commercial traders still dominating... sales. Recently, speculators have been actively increasing long positions, so a shift in sentiment could occur soon; however, it may not significantly impact the GBP/USD pair.
The dollar continues to decline due to Trump's policies, as shown on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and the Fed will reduce rates in any case over the next 12 months. Demand for the dollar will inevitably decline. According to the latest COT report (dated February 3) for the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,100 BUY contracts and 4,800 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders has increased by 2,300 contracts over the week.
In 2025, the pound rose significantly, but it should be understood that there is only one reason: Trump's policies. Once this reason is mitigated, the dollar may begin to rise. But when that will happen remains unknown.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has broken the downward trend, so in the short term, we can now expect growth. Certain events hinder the rise of the British currency or support the dollar; this is inevitable. The price cannot always move in one direction. We still believe that, in the medium term, the British pound will rise amid a weakening US dollar. Therefore, local upward trends take higher priority than downward ones.
For February 12, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3201-1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3437, 1.3533-1.3548, 1.3615, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763, 1.3846-1.3886, and 1.3948. The Senkou Span B line (1.3633) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3619) may also provide signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven when the price moves in the right direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Thursday, the UK is scheduled to publish fourth-quarter GDP data and industrial production figures. These are interesting reports, but we do not expect significant movements based on this data. In the US, only minor reports are expected, which generate little interest.
Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.3619-1.3633 if the price bounces from the 1.3671-1.3681 area. Long positions will become applicable with targets at 1.3751-1.3763 if the price breaks through the 1.3671-1.3681 area.
