In my morning forecast, I drew attention to the level of 1.2533 and recommended making decisions on market entry based on it. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. A decline occurred, but we never reached the test of 1.2533, so I didn't wait for entry signals. Considering the low market volatility, the technical picture has not been revised for the second half of the day.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:

Low trading volume and the absence of statistics prevented pound sellers from achieving the development of Friday's scenario. Given that there are no significant statistics for the second half of the day, including in the U.S., one can expect the pound's continued growth. However, before buying near the local maximum, it would be more interesting to wait for a decline and the formation of a false breakout around 1.2533. Only this will provide an entry point into long positions to recover GBP/USD and update the area of 1.2559, formed at the end of last Friday. There, the moving averages, favoring sellers, are also located. Breaking through and consolidating above this range will lead to the removal of stop orders and a more rapid rise of the pound to around 1.2559. The ultimate target will be the area of 1.2583, where I will take profit. In the scenario of a decline in the pair and the absence of bullish activity at 1.2533 in the second half of the day, nothing terrible will happen for buyers. In such a case, only a false breakout around the next support level of 1.2506, acting as the lower boundary of the sideways channel, will signal the opening of long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on the rebound only from 1.2478 with the target of a 30-35 point correction within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:

Sellers show relatively little activity for now and are unlikely to offer anything around 1.2561 in the second half of the day. Only the formation of a false breakout there, where the moving averages are located, will provide a sell signal and a chance for another downward movement to the intermediate support of 1.2533. Only a breakthrough and a reverse test from the bottom to the top of this range in the absence of significant statistics will deal a more serious blow to the positions of bulls, leading to the removal of stop orders and opening the way to the lower boundary of the channel at 1.2506. A more distant target will be the area of 1.2478, where I will take profit. In the scenario of an increase in GBP/USD and the absence of activity at 1.2559 in the second half of the day, everything is leading to this, I will postpone sales until a false breakout at the level of 1.2583. In the absence of downward movement even there, I will sell GBP/USD immediately on the rebound from 1.2609, but only in anticipation of a pair correction down by 30-35 points within the day.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for November 28, there was a sharp increase in long positions and a slight reduction in shorts. Demand for the pound persists, as statements by the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey that the regulator, if not continuing to raise interest rates, will at least maintain them at current highs for a fairly long period to help attract new buyers to the market. Add to this the dovish rhetoric of Federal Reserve representatives, together with its chairman Jerome Powell, and it becomes clear why the pound may continue to rise soon. Important statistics on the U.S. labor market will be released soon, which will clarify everything. In the latest COT report, it is stated that non-commercial long positions increased by 17,996 to the level of 61,296, while non-commercial short positions fell by 207 to the level of 69,191. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 2,442. The weekly closing price rose and amounted to 1.2701 against 1.2543.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is carried out around the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a sideways market.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1, which differs from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.2535 will act as support.

Description of Indicators

• Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked on the chart in yellow.
• Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked on the chart in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands. Period 20
• Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, use the futures market for speculative purposes and to meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.
• The total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.