Trade analysis and trading tips for the British pound

The test of the 1.3451 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by more than 40 points.

Growth in average earnings in the UK above economists' forecasts, along with a decline in the number of unemployment benefit claims, had a positive impact on the pace of the British pound's rise against the dollar. This unexpectedly positive impulse, reflecting the resilience of the UK labor market, allowed the pound to overcome a number of recent technical obstacles. Wage growth that exceeded expectations not only stimulates consumer spending and inflation, but also strengthens confidence in the British economy's ability to adapt to new conditions. The decline in benefit claims confirms this trend, indicating the availability of stable jobs and sustained demand for labor.

As for the second half of the day, the point is that weekly ADP data will not show the full picture. Investors, given the ongoing geopolitical shocks, are likely to treat this information with caution. Moreover, what will matter more than the ADP figures themselves is how they align with expectations for the upcoming employment data from the U.S. Department of Labor.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.3495 (the green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward the 1.3544 level (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3544, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Further pound growth today is also possible.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3463 price level when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3495 and 1.3544 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3463 level is updated (the red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3431 level, where I will exit short positions and also immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pound is unlikely to return today.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3495 price level when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3463 and 1.3431 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions very cautiously. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.