Last Friday, stock indices ended higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.62%, while the Nasdaq 100 jumped by 1.30%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.28%.

Today, indices continued trading near record highs, with Asian markets following Wall Street's advance after weak US jobs data reduced expectations of a Fed rate hike. US equity futures edged higher at the open after the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high on Friday. Nasdaq futures added 0.3%, while the MSCI Asia Pacific index rose by 0.6%.

A key factor for markets has been the sharp shift in monetary policy expectations. The probability of a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting has now declined to roughly 45%, down from 64% a week earlier. Treasury yields remained largely unchanged after Friday's rise, holding at 4.65%, while the dollar strengthened modestly against most currencies.

Against this improved outlook, JPMorgan raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 7,800 to 8,000 points. The bank cited a strong earnings season and faster-than-expected monetization of artificial intelligence by major companies, which is boosting profit forecasts. This marks a notable shift in rhetoric after a month in which markets had been questioning precisely the returns on AI investments.

The oil market, meanwhile, remains driven by its own dynamics, captive to uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Prices rose by 1.7% as Iran and Oman remain unable to reach an agreement on resuming operations through the strait, while Houthi militants claimed responsibility for an attack on a Saudi oil refinery near the Red Sea. Gold held steady around $4,350 per ounce following its best weekly gain since January.

Attention now shifts to US consumer price data due this week, which should provide clearer direction on the Fed's next steps. Inflation figures, rather than employment, are becoming the decisive factor for the September decision, especially given that three regional Fed presidents already advocated for an immediate rate hike at the July meeting.

Regarding the S&P 500 technical picture, buyers' main task today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $7,774. This would support gains and open the possibility of a push toward $7,793. Equally important for bulls will be maintaining control above $7,810, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In case of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must defend the $7,756 area. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $7,737 and open the path toward $7,718.