Bitcoin and Ether continued lower during Asian trading on Thursday. Bitcoin trades around $82,900, briefly dipping to $82,300 — a near-three-week low — and Ether sits near $2,560. The market fell all day yesterday: from Tuesday's high of $86,592, Bitcoin lost about 4.2%, liquidations of long positions exceeded $650m, and spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $277.2m; Ether funds also recorded outflows.

The Federal Reserve's September minutes offered no support. All 19 participants backed the 25 bp hike to 3.75–4.00%, and a majority believes one more hike before year-end would likely be appropriate, though timing depends on the data. That aligns with previous comments: Logan allowed for at least another 50 bp, Kashkari expected one hike in 2026 and one in 2027, while Williams and Jefferson urged caution. After the minutes, the market is pricing a pause on October 28 and a hike on December 9 to 4.00–4.25%.

My base case: as long as yields remain at multi-year highs and the Middle East keeps supporting oil, pressure on the crypto market will persist, with Ether likely falling harder than Bitcoin, as observed yesterday.

For Bitcoin, the price trades in a narrow range between support at 82,500 and resistance at 82,900, with outer boundaries at 82,000 and 83,400, and the plan is built around two mirrored directions with a full set of breakout and rejection scenarios. There are two entries for buying. First: a confirmed breakout above 82,900 — buy targeting 83,400, where I take profit and consider a short on the pullback, provided price is above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. Second: a rejection off 82,500 if the downside breakout fails and the spike proves false — buy for a return first to 82,900 and then to 83,400.

Sales are symmetric. On a confirmed breakdown of 82,500 to the downside, consider a short targeting 82,000, provided the moving average is above price, and the Awesome is below zero. If an upside breakout of 82,900 fails and price returns below that level, short from resistance, aiming back to 82,500 and then 82,000.

For Ether, the logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale: the inner range is between support 2,553 and resistance 2,571, with outer boundaries at 2,527 and 2,590. Buy on a confirmed breakout above 2,571, targeting 2,590, where you take profit and may consider a short on the pullback; conditions are the same—price above the 50-day MA and Awesome above zero. Buy on a rejection from 2,553 if the downside breakout fails, initially toward 2,571 and then 2,590.

For sales, a confirmed breakdown of 2,553 opens a short targeting 2,527, provided the MA is above price and Awesome is below zero. A rejection from 2,571, if the upside breakout fails, gives a short for a return to 2,553 and then 2,527. Both indicators filter out false moves, but they aren't standalone reasons to enter early; trades are taken only after price confirms the specified levels.