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29.10.2026 07:32 AM
GBP/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: The Pair Faces Renewed Selling Pressure

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During Thursday's Asian trading session, the GBP/USD pair came under renewed pressure, halting the recovery that had begun to take shape the previous day. The preceding decline pushed the pound sterling to a two-week low in the 1.3275–1.3270 level. However, the pair is currently trading above the round 1.3300 level. The strengthening US dollar is preventing further gains, while the absence of aggressive selling is also keeping bears from taking decisive action.

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The US dollar resumed its advance following a corrective decline in the wake of the Fed meeting. Heightened inflation risks, fueled by elevated energy prices, are reinforcing market expectations of a possible further Fed rate hike this year. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, market participants currently assign an approximately 80% probability to such a move in December. Persistent geopolitical tensions are another factor supporting the dollar, as they traditionally increase the appeal of the US currency as a safe-haven asset, thereby putting pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

Against the backdrop of geopolitical developments in the Middle East, reports emerged that US Vice President J.D. Vance had sent a letter to M. Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, proposing the resumption of peace negotiations. These diplomatic efforts are taking place amid statements by US President Donald Trump regarding the possibility of renewed military action in the coming weeks.

The Wall Street Journal reported that US officials had warned several Middle Eastern countries and regional allies of the need to prepare for a potential short but intensive military campaign against Iran, which could follow the midterm elections on November 3. Meanwhile, mediation efforts led by Qatar are focused on resuming negotiations between the United States and Iran to prevent further escalation of the military conflict.

Under these conditions, traders positioned for further US dollar gains should consider waiting for additional signals regarding the Fed's monetary policy beyond December before opening new positions. Attention should therefore be paid to the upcoming release of preliminary US third-quarter GDP data and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

At the same time, expectations of monetary policy tightening by the Bank of England could limit the GBP/USD pair's further downside potential.

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair retains a moderately bullish bias on the four-hour chart. Prices remain above the 100-period and 200-period simple moving averages (SMAs). The current price is attempting to break above the 20-period SMA, indicating positive momentum toward the 50-period SMA, which will serve as the nearest resistance in the 1.3352–1.3350 level. On the other hand, immediate support is located at 1.3315, near the 9-period exponential moving average (EMA). Below this level lies a stronger support level formed by the 200-period SMA, the round 1.3300 level, and the 100-period SMA. A break below this zone would accelerate the decline toward the 1.3200–1.3180 area, followed by the October low. Meanwhile, the oscillators are in negative territory, confirming the bears' advantage.

The table below shows the percentage change in the US dollar against a basket of currencies for the current day. The largest gain has been recorded against the euro.

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