Early Wednesday morning brought the first definitive results of the 2026 US congressional elections. At present Democrats are securing a clear victory, as expected. In the House of Representatives Democratic candidates have already won 162 seats out of the 219 needed for a majority; Republicans hold only 102 seats. In the Senate, Democrats have already secured 51 votes, enough to control the upper chamber. If the situation does not materially deteriorate for Democrats before the count is complete, and if Donald Trump does not legally contest the results, Democrats will win both chambers.

This outcome is not surprising to me. There were doubts about whether Democrats could take the Senate, but preliminary returns show U.S. voters are fed up with Donald Trump's politics, which so far have not produced a "golden age" or broad economic prosperity but have coincided with rising prices, costly wars, contentious migration policy, and damaged international relations. As of six years ago, many Americans turned out to vote against the person who represents Trump.

Trump is not on the ballot, of course, but Republicans now embody their leader and president. Put simply, the more congressional seats Republicans win, the more freedom the president enjoys. And Americans have had a clear sense over the past two years of what happens when a president's hands are fully untied.

On the basis of all this, my forecast remains unchanged: Democrats will take both chambers, which will set the stage for open clashes between Congress and Trump on virtually any issue. Trump is likely to veto Democratic initiatives, and Democrats will use all means to block his measures. The president's powers allow him to act unilaterally in many areas even if Congress is "fully blue." However, some decisions require Congressional approval and, in certain cases, supermajorities (60 votes or more). That means the White House will no longer be able to pursue parts of domestic, foreign, and trade policy by decree alone. In particular, the budget for the coming year will require Congressional action; Democrats are likely to block measures that would fund Trump's planned increases in spending on a war with Iran and on defense.

Other articles to read:

Analysis of EUR/USD. November 4. Macroeconomic data moves to background

Wave analysis for EUR/USD

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude the instrument remains within a global corrective A-B-C-D-E trend segment. However, this structure appears complete and may be finished. In my view, now is a good time not only to buy the European currency but also to expect a full bullish trend segment. On the higher timeframe, one should expect a rise of at least 1,700–1,800 pips. An unsuccessful attempt to break 1.1126, which corresponds to 50.0% on Fibonacci (lower chart, higher timeframe), also points to market readiness to buy.

Wave analysis for GBP/USD

The wave picture for GBP/USD has become fairly clear. Charts show a distinct corrective A-B-C-D-E structure that may be complete. A similar structure on EUR/USD may also be complete. If that assumption is correct, Sterling has finished its decline and has begun building a bullish trend segment with targets above the peaks of waves B and D—that is, above the 3,700-pip level. Two waves of the initial wave of the new bullish segment are already built. Consequently, the advance may continue toward targets near 1.3531 and 1.3651, which correspond to 76.4% and 100.0% on Fibonacci.

Key principles of my analysis:

1) Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.

2) If you are not confident about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.

3) There is no such thing as 100% certainty in direction; do not forget stop-loss protective orders.

4) Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.