Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1611 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying euros. As a result, the pair rose by 20 pips.

The euro reacted positively to Trump's statements about the progress of negotiations with Iran. The minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting did not bring significant changes to the balance of power in the currency market. Tensions in the Persian Gulf related to the Iranian issue remain a top concern and directly influence the currency market. Any escalation in the situation could lead to a sharp rise or a strengthening of the dollar, prompting traders to react to every Trump statement.

Today, important data regarding the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in the Eurozone for May are expected in the first half of the day, as well as the PMI for the services sector. Investors and analysts will pay close attention to the manufacturing PMI, as it reflects sentiments and trends in one of the key sectors of the economy, and its dynamics often serve as a precursor to changes in other sectors. Values above 50 typically signal growth, while values below indicate a decline.

Data on the current account balance from the European Central Bank, to be released shortly thereafter, provides information on trade in goods and services and capital flows. A positive balance may indicate the Eurozone's competitiveness on the international stage, while a deficit could raise concerns about external imbalances. A significant divergence from economists' forecasts is sure to trigger a reaction in the currency market.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, euros can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1631 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to level 1.1661. At point 1.1661, I plan to exit the market and sell euros back, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Strong euro growth can only be expected after positive data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from that level.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1617 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1631 and 1.1661.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1617 (red line on the chart). The target will be level 1.1589, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from that level.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1631 twice in a row, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1617 and 1.1589.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.