Lihat juga
11.11.2026 06:26 PM
The EUR/USD pair remains in a sideways range, which is clearly visible on any chart. The daily chart also shows that trading over the past month has taken place between 1.1114 and 1.1269. Thus, the market has established a certain equilibrium zone. Significant market-moving events are needed to break out of this range. However, even major inflation and labor market reports have failed to trigger such a move. As a reminder, the latest Nonfarm Payrolls reports and unemployment data triggered a fairly strong market reaction but had no impact on the sideways range. In my view, the market has already priced in the Fed's hawkish policy scenario several times. This is precisely why the US dollar has failed to resume its advance despite strong unemployment and labor market reports. If the labor market remains strong, the Fed can continue tightening monetary policy with greater confidence and raise interest rates more aggressively. However, how much longer can the dollar continue to appreciate on the basis of this single factor, and how many more hawkish steps does the market expect from the FOMC? The inflation report allowed traders to push the pair from the upper boundary of the range back toward its lower boundary once again. Bulls are now waiting for another opportunity to sweep liquidity below the two most recent lows and make a new attempt to establish an upward trend.
Over the past two months, the news background has often favored the euro, but this has had virtually no impact on its exchange rate. Last week, it became clear that the Republican Party had suffered a decisive defeat in the elections, while inflation in the European Union accelerated to 4%. The US Congress will now be divided, and cooperation between Democrats and Republicans is likely to remain difficult. As a result, many important government decisions could face significant delays. The renewed acceleration in EU inflation points toward further ECB monetary policy tightening, just as rising inflation in the United States suggests further Fed tightening. If the market prices in an FOMC rate hike, it should also price in an ECB rate hike. However, in recent months, the cause-and-effect relationships influencing EUR/USD have been far from consistent.
It is worth recalling that one of the main reasons behind the dollar's appreciation over the past three months has been the Fed's hawkish stance. However, in practice, its policy stance is not particularly hawkish compared with those of other central banks. For example, the ECB is expected to implement its third rate hike in December, while the Bank of England has only recently begun its monetary policy tightening cycle but could deliver as many as four full rate increases. The British pound is responding to all these factors, whereas the euro is not.
At present, there are no signs that the bearish advance is coming to an end. Imbalance 24 remains valid, and the price could still react to it, potentially generating a sell signal. Bulls need to invalidate Imbalance 24 and form bullish patterns before any meaningful upward movement can be expected. This would require a sharp upward move in the euro, which is still absent. The liquidity sweep above 1.1270, together with strong US labor market and inflation data, triggered renewed bearish pressure. Bulls are now left hoping for another liquidity sweep below the most recent lows.
Overall, the news background continues to favor the bulls, in my view. Despite the Fed's increasingly hawkish monetary policy stance, this is not the only factor determining exchange rates. There were no significant economic releases on Wednesday, but the market continued to buy the dollar aggressively, as inflation reports now appear to influence market pricing for at least two consecutive days. In any case, no new patterns can develop within the range. The next step is to wait for a reaction, or the absence of one, near the 1.1105 low.
On November 12, the economic calendar contains three events, of which only Lagarde's speech is worth particular attention. The impact of economic data on market sentiment on Thursday is expected to be limited.
In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend that has entered a corrective pause lasting an entire year. The news background shifted sharply in favor of the bears eight months ago, but the broader trend, which has been in place for four years, cannot yet be considered invalidated or complete.
Bulls could resume their advance before the end of the year, but their only meaningful opportunities at present are the low of 1.1066, established in June last year, and the low of 1.1105, recorded two weeks ago. As for the bears, they currently have Imbalance 24 and the liquidity sweep above the most recent high. A liquidity sweep is not, in itself, a pattern or trading signal, but it alerts the market to a potential move in a particular direction. In this case, the expected movement remains within the horizontal range.
No trading signals have formed in recent days. However, this is not necessarily a bad thing in a sideways market, as trading with the trend is generally preferable to trading within a range.
