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22.01.2026 05:19 AM
The EUR/USD currency pair failed to determine a direction on Wednesday. And it must be admitted that the day's events indeed contributed to market panic. We should start with Donald Trump's speech in Davos. As usual, the US president began to criticize the European Union. According to Trump, the EU is heading "completely the wrong way." He criticized free movement within the EU, the commitment to "green energy," and the weakness of the economy, advising them to take the US as an example. A little later, at a closed dinner, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick criticized the European Union, after which ECB head Christine Lagarde left the dinner early. As we can see, the American delegation arrived in Davos not to ease tensions over Greenland. The objective was to put even more pressure on the EU, to show its weakness and worthlessness. It is hard for us to say how long Europe will tolerate such treatment.
There were virtually no macro events on Wednesday. The technical picture on the hourly TF remains unchanged. Price has broken the descending trend line as well as the Ichimoku indicator lines, so even in the short term, we expect continued strength from the euro. In our view, the pair will soon return to the 1.1800–1.1830 area, where its fate will be decided once again: either the consolidation will be preserved, or the uptrend will resume.
On the 5-minute TF, no trading signals were formed yesterday, and perhaps that is for the best. The day's events were unpredictable, and the market itself did not understand how to interpret them. Therefore, the EUR/USD pair was strongly tossed back and forth during the day. In such conditions, opening any trading positions is risky.
The latest COT report is dated January 13. The illustration above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains bullish. Since Trump took office for a second time as US president, only the dollar has been falling. We cannot say the dollar's decline will continue with 100% probability, but current global developments suggest that scenario is precisely what will unfold. The red and blue lines are diverging, indicating strong bull dominance.
We still do not see any fundamental factors supporting the euro's strengthening, while there are plenty of factors for the US dollar's decline. The global downtrend still persists, but what does it matter now, given that the price moved over the past 17 years? Over the last three years, only the euro has been rising, and that trend continues.
The positioning of the red and blue indicator lines continues to indicate the preservation and strengthening of the bullish trend. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs held by the Non-commercial group decreased by 14,600, while the number of shorts increased by 15,500. Accordingly, the net position for the week fell by 30,100 contracts.
On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has broken the downtrend. In the near term, the euro may return to the upper line of the sideways channel 1.1400–1.1830, we hope, and break out of this cursed zone. The fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop continues to support the euro rather than the dollar.
For January 22, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1657–1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988, as well as the Ichimoku lines Senkou Span B (1.1692) and Kijun-sen (1.1673). The Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Do not forget to move the Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved 15 pips in the correct direction. This will protect against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false.
No important events are scheduled in the Eurozone on Thursday, while the US will publish the third GDP estimate for Q3 and several secondary reports. In our view, the market will continue to closely monitor geopolitical events and the EU-US standoff. No matter how strong US economic growth may be, traders do not trust those figures, and they will not help the dollar.
On Thursday, traders may trade from the 1.1750–1.1760 area or from the Senkou Span B line. A bounce from this area will allow opening short positions with a target at 1.1692. A bounce from the Senkou Span B line will make longs relevant with a target at 1.1750–1.1760.
