Trade Review and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1643 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving below the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, the pair failed to develop a significant downward move.

According to the latest data, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.2% in May, fully matching economists' forecasts. The fact that actual data met expectations indicates that the current economic environment remains largely predictable. However, this does not provide the European Central Bank with greater confidence in its current monetary policy stance, as it is becoming increasingly evident that policy adjustments are needed, potentially as soon as the next meeting.

Ahead of the US session, market participants will focus on key US macroeconomic releases that could influence the dollar's performance. The main event will be the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This indicator, which reflects labor market conditions, serves as a barometer of economic activity and may provide clues about future economic trends. In addition, the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is scheduled for release. Based on consumer surveys, this indicator offers insight into perceptions of current and future economic conditions. An improvement in the index could signal rising consumer confidence, something the US economy has lacked recently amid a sharp increase in inflation.

As for intraday trading, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, euro buying opportunities may be considered around 1.1653 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1705. At 1.1705, I plan to exit long positions and consider opening short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Further gains in the euro can be expected today only if favorable news supports the market.

Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests the 1.1636 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish reversal. In this case, a move toward 1.1653 and 1.1705 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the pair reaches 1.1636 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1594, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately consider opening long positions, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Pressure on the pair is likely to return today if strong US economic data is released.

Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests the 1.1653 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.1636 and 1.1594 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – the suggested entry price for long positions;
• Thick green line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits may be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the suggested entry price for short positions;
• Thick red line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits may be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold conditions.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is generally advisable to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental releases to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can quickly lose your entire trading capital, especially when trading large position sizes without proper risk management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is generally a losing approach for intraday traders.