Lihat juga
25.06.2026 02:17 PM
Twenty?four hours after passing a joint resolution calling for an end to the use of US military force against Tehran, the US Senate rejected a similar anti?war measure. The final vote was 47 in favor and 50 against, with Republican Senator Rand Paul choosing to abstain. The day before, Donald Trump had launched a harsh attack on lawmakers — including four members of his own party — who initially supported curbing his powers when the upper chamber previously voted 50 to 48.
On his Truth Social account, the president effusively thanked allies for changing their position and said the vote would serve as a serious warning to Iranian authorities. According to CNN, this was already the 11th Senate attempt this year to challenge or adjust White House defense authorities on the Middle East track. The president openly called such moves ill?timed actions that play into Washington's opponents and weaken US negotiating positions.
At the same time, the United States unexpectedly implemented an unprecedented easing of the sanctions regime, temporarily allowing the production, sale and cross?border transport of Iranian oil. The move could sharply accelerate the Islamic Republic's economic recovery by injecting billions of dollars in additional revenues and significantly simplifying maritime logistics. However, the immediate effect is limited because strict European and UK restrictions remain in place and high reputational and financial risks continue to deter major Western buyers.
The White House is using this measure more as a short?term political instrument to influence ongoing negotiations and to rein in market prices. Washington hopes to keep the Strait of Hormuz reliably open, push down global commodity prices and weaken China's dominant position in Iranian procurement. Industry analysts doubt these goals will be achieved in full. The main question remains whether this easing will turn into a long?term policy reversal by the US that could reshape the region's geopolitical balance for the coming decade.
The first round of official US–Iran talks exposed deep disagreements over the interpretation of any agreements reached. Donald Trump hastily announced that Tehran had agreed to inspections of its nuclear facilities, but Iranian diplomats categorically denied this, saying the nuclear program was not even discussed at the meeting. A serious split also persists over the unfrozen billions: Washington insists these funds be spent exclusively on US goods, while Tehran regards that condition as wholly unnecessary.
Meanwhile, Trump's approval rating inside the US has fallen to a critical 34%, sharply increasing his personal incentive to secure a quick diplomatic win before the upcoming elections. For Iranian authorities, the White House's domestic constraints are a clear signal that the threat of renewed large?scale military action has faded, pushing Iran toward an even more uncompromising stance on issues such as:
The inaugural Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh marked a sharp change in communication policy and sparked heated debate among analysts at Citadel Securities and Morgan Stanley. The new Fed chair sharply shortened the post?meeting statement and flatly refused to discuss the interest rate trajectory in detail during the press conference. Nohshad Shah, head of sales for EMEA at Citadel Securities, believes such decisive Fed action will strengthen investor confidence in the regulator.
In his view, the Fed's willingness to aggressively adjust rates in response to fresh data — rather than waiting for the market to price in such moves in advance — effectively limits the risk of entrenched high inflation and major macroeconomic shocks. Shah called investors' concerns about rising term premia misplaced and argued that the Fed's new course will make 10-year Treasury yields — a key benchmark for corporate and mortgage lending in the US — more stable.
A completely opposite and far more alarming view of Warsh's reform was presented by Morgan Stanley strategists led by Matthew Hornbach. They warned clients that the Fed's return to terse releases, a lack of forward guidance and a focus on balance sheet reduction will trigger a massive burst of volatility in the short end of the government bond market not seen in many years. Analysts stress that this tectonic shift will completely reshape the yield curve.
In other words, it will force the short?term segment to move in an unpredictable rhythm characteristic of the era before the Fed routinely provided advance signals. Experts draw a direct historical parallel between Kevin Warsh's strategy and the hardline management style of Alan Greenspan (1987–2006), when Fed statements were a few paragraphs long and forward guidance was almost absent.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is undergoing its largest historical transformation: on June 29, before the open, Alphabet will officially replace telecom giant Verizon Communications. This move completely removes the classic telecom presence from the oldest US benchmark, further tilting its composition toward tech giants. After the announcement, Alphabet shares rose 0.5% following a 1% intraday decline, while Verizon shares fell less than 1% despite an earlier 3% intraday gain.
Market analysts note that this reshuffle reflects a new interpretation of the "industrial" economy in the 21st century. According to Interactive Brokers, modern industry is no longer smoking factory chimneys but the large?scale deployment of data centers and the massive loans that underpin them, making Google's business model a new form of heavy industry. Despite the headlines, adding Alphabet to the Dow's 30 constituents is largely symbolic: the volume of passive capital tied to the Dow is tiny compared with the trillion?dollar pools tracking the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100. The change continues a long?term trend of displacing the old economy: less than two years ago, Nvidia replaced Walgreens, and in 2020, Salesforce replaced Exxon Mobil, leaving the energy sector with only Chevron in the index. Notably, Alphabet's triumphant inclusion comes amid significant troubles at the company: Alphabet suffered its worst session in more than a year and a record market?value evaporation on Monday amid investor panic over a mass exodus of top AI specialists.
June 25, 09:00 / Germany — GfK Consumer Climate Index for July (leading) / prev.: -33.1 / act.: -29.7 / forecast: -27.6 / EUR/USD – up
The GfK consumer climate index for Germany in June was adjusted to -29.7 points. Current macro data point to weak stabilization of sentiment at a low level. Despite a moderate decline in pessimism about personal incomes and general economic prospects, readiness for major purchases remains low while propensity to save is at a historic high. The leading July forecast of -27.6, if confirmed, would indicate consumer sector recovery and strengthen the euro.
June 25, 15:30 / Canada — Average weekly earnings, non?farm (April) / prev.: 2.85% / act.: 3.50% / forecast: 2.90% / USD/CAD – up
Average weekly earnings in Canada's non?farm sector accelerated to 3.5% year?on?year in March. Major income gains were recorded in utilities, transportation and the information sector, while real estate and forestry saw declines. Average workweek length remained almost unchanged. Analysts expect wage growth to slow to 2.9% in April; that would signal easing pro?inflationary pressure in the labor market and weaken the Canadian dollar.
June 25, 15:30 / US — GDP growth, Q1 (annualized) / prev.: 4.4% / act.: 0.5% / forecast: 1.6% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up
Revised data show the US economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026. The downward revision from preliminary estimates was driven by weaker consumer spending and reduced commercial real estate investment, though business equipment investment was strong. Net exports also weighed on GDP due to a sharp rise in imports; government spending recovered after the government funding pause. Final confirmation of 1.6% growth would demonstrate US economic resilience and strengthen the dollar.
June 25, 15:30 / US — Durable goods orders, month/month (May) / prev.: 1.3% / act.: 7.9% / forecast: -4.5% / USDX – down
New orders for durable goods in the US jumped 7.9% month?on?month in April, the largest increase in the past year, driven by large contracts in:
The May forecast calls for a 4.5% drop; confirmation would signal cooling investment demand in industry and weigh on the dollar.
June 25, 15:30 / US — Personal incomes, month/month (May) / prev.: 0.5% / act.: 0% / forecast: 0.4% / USDX – up
Personal incomes in the US were roughly flat in April versus March. The main drag was a sharp decline in farm incomes after the end of government subsidy payments, partly offset by steady wage gains in private and public sectors. Real disposable incomes edged down. A 0.4% rebound in May would indicate a consumer cash flow pickup and strengthen the dollar.
June 25, 15:30 / US — Personal spending, month/month (May) / prev.: 1.0% / act.: 0.5% / forecast: 0.6% / USDX – up
Personal spending in April rose 0.5% month?on?month, slowing from a strong March gain. Gasoline and energy price increases tied to the Middle East conflict were a key contributor to goods spending, while auto demand softened. Services spending increased due to utilities, dining and leisure; real consumption adjusted for inflation showed only marginal growth. A 0.6% rise in May would confirm resilient retail demand and support the dollar.
June 25, 15:30 / US — GDP deflator, Q1 / prev.: 3.7% / act.: 3.6% / forecast: 4.5% / USDX – up
The US GDP deflator for Q1 rose year?on?year, slightly slowing versus the prior period but remaining well above long?term averages. The new report forecasts an acceleration to 4.5%; confirmation would point to stronger overall inflationary pressure and lift the dollar.
June 25, 15:30 / US — Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May) / prev.: -0.15 / act.: 0.14 / forecast: 0.12 / USDX – down
The Chicago Fed index for April moved decisively into positive territory at +0.14, a one?year high. The main driver was a sharp manufacturing rebound and improved sales and orders, offsetting slight declines in employment and personal consumption subindices. A May print of 0.12 would signal stabilization in activity growth and weigh on the dollar.
June 25, 15:30 / US — Initial jobless claims, weekly / prev.: 230k / act.: 226k / forecast: 225k / USDX – up
Initial jobless claims fell to 226,000 in the second week of June, retreating from the prior peak. Continued claims rose to a three?month high of 1.81 million, reflecting a cooling in hiring flows. Despite local volatility and fewer government claims, the labor market remains historically resilient. A print of 225,000 would reinforce labor market strength and support the dollar.
June 25, 15:30 / US — Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, May / prev.: 3.5% / act.: 3.8% / forecast: 4.1% / USDX – up
The PCE price index rose 3.8% year?on?year in April 2026 — the highest since May 2023, in line with expectations. The long?run average annual change in the PCE since 1960–2026 is 3.29%; the index's historical high was 11.60% in March 1980, and its low was -1.47% in July 2009. An increase in this measure would lift the dollar.
June 25, 04:00 / Japan — Speech by Naoki Tamura, Bank of Japan Board of Directors / USD/JPY
June 25, 13:00 / Eurozone — Speech by Philip Lane, ECB Supervisory Board / EUR/USD
June 25, 15:00 & 18:00 / Eurozone — Speeches by Piero Cipollone, ECB Executive Board / EUR/USD
Besides, this week, remarks from senior central bank policymakers are expected. Their comments typically trigger FX volatility because they can signal regulators' future policy intentions.
