Trade Review and Trading Advice for the Euro

The test of the 1.1798 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a proper entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined to the 1.1781 level.

Inflation data from the eurozone came in exactly in line with economists' expectations, which put downward pressure on the European currency. The euro is losing ground against the U.S. dollar, as slowing inflation in the eurozone — with the overall Consumer Price Index already falling below 2.0% to 1.7% — suggests that the European Central Bank is unlikely to raise interest rates in the coming years. Further rate cuts are more likely.

In the second half of the day, due to the absence of significant statistical data from the United States, market participants will focus on speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members: Thomas Barkin, Jeffrey Schmid, and Alberto Musalem. These remarks could prove decisive for financial markets, as they may provide investors with valuable signals regarding the future policy of the U.S. central bank. With no macroeconomic releases scheduled, statements from FOMC members will serve as the primary guide for trading decisions. Given the current market environment, any comments hinting at either tightening or easing by the Federal Reserve will have serious implications.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the 1.1784 level (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1805. At 1.1805, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro can be expected only if the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1768 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1784 and 1.1805 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1768 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1742, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return if a hawkish stance is taken.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1784 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1768 and 1.1742 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated level for setting Take Profit orders or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated level for setting Take Profit orders or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.