EUR/USD is trading around 1.1638, below the 21 SMA and within the downtrend channel formed since December 22. On the H4 chart, we can see that EUR/USD is under bearish pressure and is likely to continue falling in the coming days until it reaches the 2/8 Murray located at 1.1596.

The euro attempted to break through the top of the downtrend channel, which coincided with the 200 EMA, acting as a strong barrier. From that level, we are seeing a technical correction.

If the euro reaches 2/8 Murray or the bottom of the downtrend channel in the coming hours, we could expect this area to be a good point to open long positions, as the instrument is technically reaching exhaustion levels and a recovery is likely to follow.

If the euro consolidates above the 3/8 Murray located at 1.1657, we could expect an upward movement so that EUR/USD could reach the 200 EMA around 1.1685. If there is a sharp break in the downtrend channel, we could expect it to rise quickly and reach the 5/8 Murray at 1.1779 and finally the 6/8 Murray at 1.1840.

Our outlook is bullish for the euro in the coming days, so we will look for opportunities to buy around 1.1596 or in the event of a recovery above 1.1657.