আরও দেখুন
24.04.2026 12:45 AM
Iran has reported that the blockade of Iranian ports is the main reason why full-fledged peace negotiations are impossible. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran welcomes dialogue, but America must also demonstrate a readiness for peace. Pezeshkian openly accused the U.S. authorities and the American state of hypocrisy and contradictions "that the whole world can see." Tehran will continue to take all necessary measures to protect its national interests.
Some experts and "insiders" report that Iranian authorities may fear a national uprising; however, this information should be regarded with caution, as it has been in previous "insider" reports. For example, the BBC reported that Iran may eventually find itself at the negotiating table, as the number of public protests has increased in recent weeks. According to some data, nearly 20 people have been executed. Representatives of military units report that any dissent will be actively suppressed. Is this already Orwell's "1984"? Or not yet?
At the same time, Iran attacked several commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz that were attempting to breach the blockade, and one more vessel was seized. This event sends a clear message to all insiders who continuously talk about negotiations, peace, and the unblocking of Hormuz. Real events show that movement through the strait is completely blocked, without exception. Pakistan continues to try to urge both sides toward negotiations, hoping to assert itself on the international stage.
Analysts also highlight Donald Trump's contradictory statements. One moment, the U.S. president threatens to completely destroy Iran, and the next, he talks about an almost signed deal and good news. Trump has effectively achieved a change in leadership in Tehran, but has not succeeded in changing the political regime. Instead of the ousted officials, others with the same anti-American views have come to power. Trump himself stated that Iran needs more time for the ruling elite to come to a common position regarding negotiations with the US. This raises the question: who exactly is Trump negotiating with?
From the above, one thing is clear—nothing is clear. The situation can swing in any direction at any moment. This is why the currency market is hesitant to make decisions, and why oil prices are rising again: the absence of negotiations is, in fact, the path to escalation, not peace. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the more the world's strategic oil reserves will shrink. Consequently, the shortage of black gold may become even more acute in the near future.
Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend (lower picture), while in the short term, it is within a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and may take on a more complex, extended form only if a stable, long-term truce is established among Iran, the US, Israel, and ALL other countries in the Middle East. Otherwise, I believe that from current positions, a new downward wave set may begin. Or a corrective wave may continue.
The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I had anticipated. We now see a clear three-wave upward structure on the charts, which may already be complete. If this is indeed the case, we can expect the formation of at least one descending wave (presumably d). The upward segment of the trend may take on a five-wave form, but for that to happen, the conflict in the Middle East needs to subside, not reignite. Therefore, the base scenario for the coming days is a decline to the 34th figure or slightly below. After that, everything will again depend on geopolitical factors.
