Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 157.35 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 25 points.

Today, a large amount of economic data is expected, along with speeches from two influential members of the Federal Open Market Committee—Michelle Bowman and Michael S. Barr. Their comments on the current economic situation, inflation risks, and monetary policy outlook will be seen as important signals regarding the Fed's potential next steps. Statements from FOMC representatives can significantly influence market expectations for future interest rate changes and the overall uncertainty in financial markets. In addition, attention should be paid to developments in the Middle East, where the current calm without news may signal underlying risks. If the situation worsens, the yen could come under strong pressure again.

Particular importance will be placed on the release of the ISM Services PMI. This indicator is traditionally considered one of the key barometers of the U.S. economy, reflecting sentiment in one of the largest components of GDP. Its reading is expected to help assess the pace of recovery and the current resilience of consumer demand.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the execution of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1:

I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 157.67 (green line on the chart), with a target of 158.24 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.24, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move). Growth in the pair today is likely if U.S. data comes in strong.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2:

I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 157.46 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, growth toward 157.67 and 158.24 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1:

I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakout below the 157.46 level (red line on the chart), which would likely lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 157.04, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today if U.S. data comes in weak.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2:

I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 157.67 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward 157.46 and 157.04 can then be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line: entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line: suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line: entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line: suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator: when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions with extreme caution. It is best to stay out of the market during major fundamental releases to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses.

Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.