আরও দেখুন
28.05.2026 09:56 AM
Regular statements from Donald Trump about an imminent compromise with Tehran have finally lost their former market impact. Where in March 2026 similar verbal interventions from the White House could easily reverse trends—sending Brent below $100 and triggering equity rebounds—by May, the situation has changed dramatically. Markets have recognized a deep gap between Washington's upbeat rhetoric and the harsh reality in which Iran shows no intent to confirm moves toward de?escalation. Short?term truces turn into mutual ultimatums: Tehran ties any unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz strictly to an end of the naval siege, while the US repeatedly returns to forceful pressure.
Investors have developed a durable immunity to the White House's political slogans, shifting the focus away from administration forecasts to the physical parameters of supply, so new prospects of a deal are increasingly seen as attempts to manipulate sentiment. At the same time, analysts at investment bank JPMorgan have exposed a critical vulnerability in global energy logistics: about 67% of the world's crude oil and refined products are transported exclusively by sea. The whole transnational system functions as a tightly connected network operating on distribution?hub principles.
The central axis of this structure is the East–West transit corridor that runs near the equator and connects the largest producers and consumers in North America, Europe, the Middle East and the Asia?Pacific. The stability of this route depends entirely on four vulnerable chokepoints:
Around 62% of global seaborne hydrocarbon traffic passes through these narrow geographic bottlenecks. In normal times, they minimize freight logistics costs, but in wartime, they become perfect triggers for an immediate paralysis of world trade.
Meanwhile, unusual developments are unfolding in the US AI sector. Microsoft abruptly imposed a strict internal ban on its engineering corps' use of Anthropic's third?party tool Claude Code. Only six months ago management actively encouraged the adoption of that system, but in practice, it turned into a financial nightmare. The streaming token?based billing model across roughly 100,000 full?time developers generated such massive invoices that the company decided to terminate almost all third?party licenses by the end of June 2026. Staff are being forced to move to Microsoft's own GitHub Copilot CLI.
The paradox is that Microsoft previously invested $5 billion in Anthropic. Yet it proved unwilling to cover such expensive AI support inside its own environment. Uber faced a similar barrier, exhausting its annual AI development budget in just four months of 2026, while Nvidia openly acknowledged that the cost of buying machine time now far exceeds payroll expenses for software engineers. Instead of the promised cost savings, early attempts at deep integration of neural networks have produced unprecedented cost inflation for businesses.
Trying to keep its lead in the technology race, Microsoft ranks third globally in capex aggressiveness, having directed $204.7 billion to infrastructure needs since 2023, behind only:
Management justifies these massive outlays to investors as a fundamental market paradigm shift, arguing the industry is moving from simple chatbots to a full?scale agent economy. Under this model, artificial intelligence becomes a primary computational platform where autonomous digital agents take on long?running corporate tasks and operate on behalf of users over large datasets.
The corporation expects to offset risks via secondary effects across the Azure cloud, the Microsoft 365 Copilot ecosystem, GitHub, Foundry, Fabric and related cybersecurity services. Current investment records are presented as laying the groundwork for a new technological order comparable in scale to the birth of the internet or mobile telephony. In its official Form 10?Q filings, Microsoft explicitly points to a tight dependence of its long?term strategy on:
Any logistical or raw?material delays could derail the company's plans to meet explosive demand. To shift investor focus from abstract rivalry between base LLMs, Microsoft is betting on applied business contexts and actively promoting the Work IQ architectural layer. At the same time, Microsoft is quietly triggering a tectonic shift in software monetization, preparing the market to move away from fixed monthly subscriptions. Acknowledging that autonomous agents generate highly variable compute loads, the vendor is migrating B2B customers to flexible pricing tied to the actual volume of compute tokens consumed.
Global tech giants have already poured about $725 billion into AI infrastructure, prompting investors to ask an uncomfortable question: does artificial intelligence actually reduce businesses' operating costs, or does it simply replace familiar expense items with new, far more aggressive spending? Against this backdrop, analysts at JPMorgan Private Bank issued an ultra?optimistic forecast that the core US market index S&P 500 could exceed 9,000 points within the next year. Such a parabolic surge would imply a net market?cap gain of roughly 22% from current levels.
The firm's experts stress that the uptrend on Wall Street still has a good chance of continuing despite the protracted conflict with Iran and persistent inflation. That scenario would materialize if the unfolding AI supercycle proves far stronger than consensus expectations, allowing the index to touch 9,000 by mid?2027. While this outcome is not the base case, the authors call it entirely feasible, citing the strong fundamentals of technology leaders. Year?to?date AI?related names in the S&P 500 have jumped about 23%, while the broader market has gained a modest 8%. JPMorgan's analysts counter skeptics' worries about extreme capital concentration in a narrow group of big tech firms with historical parallels.
If large?scale digital transformation accelerates productivity growth, corporate net profits could rise more than 10% per year without triggering monetary overheating. Markets saw a similar precedent in the late 1990s, when annual productivity growth of around 2.8% supported gains of over 20% in the index for five consecutive years. The key risk to this rally remains a commodity shock from the Middle Eastern war, which could keep interest rates elevated and increase pressure on risk assets. A localized cooling in the semiconductor and AI developer sectors in response to pressure from the debt market would be a healthy technical correction that sets the stage for the next leg of a large bull run.
Meanwhile, the US debt market, at $31 trillion, is showing firm resistance to the executive branch, reacting sensitively to the ongoing military confrontation in Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—who earned a reputation on Wall Street as an effective volatility?suppressor—faces the most dangerous challenge of his career. The tough anti?Iran sanctions introduced by Donald Trump in October triggered a cascade of energy price increases and a pronounced inflationary wave, effectively nullifying the Treasury's stabilization efforts. As a result, 10?year yields jumped more than 0.5 percentage point, and 30?year yields last week hit highs not seen since 2007.
Earlier, the Treasury head repeatedly demonstrated flexibility—conducting covert currency checks in January to protect the Japanese yen, arranging a complex swap with Argentina in October to support the peso ahead of midterm elections, and even discussing direct interventions in oil futures in March. In April 2025, Bessent helped calm panic after tariff shocks, publicly calling the bond rout a routine technical deleveraging. But the current situation is far more serious: recent data recorded the largest jump in US consumer prices since 2023. Despite hopes for a local peace deal, inflationary pressure keeps yields at extremely high levels, contradicting Bessent's May 12 assertion that the rally was purely transitory.
The situation is compounded by the fact that inflation significantly exceeded the Fed's 2% target even before the Iran crisis began. Fiscal imbalances are also growing:
Although the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh traditionally leans toward monetary easing, the April minutes confirmed the majority's readiness to raise rates further if price pressures prove persistent. JPMorgan Asset Management notes that the so?called "Bessent put" on managing bond issuance is now effectively blocked by macroeconomic reality. Analysts at Goldman Sachs forecast that elevated bond yields will persist due to an excess supply of long?term paper.
May 28
28 May, 02:01 / UK / Car production in April / prev.: -8.2% / actual: -10.7% / forecast: 4.4% / GBP/USD – up In March, UK car production fell year?on?year, showing a slowdown in the pace of decline versus the previous month. The main restraining factors were:
This was only partly offset by increased deliveries to the European region and steady domestic demand. The April report is expected to show a clear return to positive territory. If actual data match the forecast, it will confirm an industry recovery and strengthen the pound.
28 May, 04:30 / Australia / Household spending in April / prev.: 4.6% / actual: 6.3% / forecast: 5.5% / AUD/USD – down
In March, household spending in Australia posted a substantial month?on?month increase, exceeding long?term historical averages. Consumer activity remains resilient relative to previous years. The April report forecasts a moderate slowdown in spending growth. Confirmation of the forecast would signal a gradual cooling of domestic demand and weaken the Australian dollar.
28 May, 08:00 / Japan / Housing construction volumes in April / prev.: -4.9% / actual: -29.3% / forecast: 15.5% / USD/JPY – down
Housing construction volumes in Japan plunged in March, hitting a multi?month low and missing market expectations. The downturn, driven by high costs and weak demand, affected all key segments, including:
The April release is forecast to show a sharp reversal to solid growth. If realized, this would indicate stabilization in the construction sector and strengthen the yen.
28 May, 12:00 / Eurozone / Economic sentiment index for May / prev.: 96.2 pts / actual: 93.0 pts / forecast: 92.8 pts / EUR/USD – down
The eurozone economic sentiment index fell in April to its lowest level in recent years amid rising geopolitical uncertainty. With inflation expectations surging, pessimism spread across the economy, especially in:
The May report is expected to keep the index at low levels. Confirmation of the forecast would indicate a continuation of the pessimistic trend and weaken the euro.
28 May, 12:00 / Eurozone / Consumer confidence index for May / prev.: 43.5 pts / actual: 49.1 pts / forecast: 55.0 pts / EUR/USD – up
Consumers' one?year inflation expectations in the eurozone rose sharply in April, moving well above long?term historical averages. Households expect faster price growth under current macro shocks. Analysts expect this indicator to rise further in May. Confirmation of the forecast would signal persistent inflationary pressure and strengthen the euro.
In the previous period, US economic growth slowed despite strong business investment in:
The main restraining factor was an expanding trade deficit driven by faster import growth. The advance Q1 report is forecast to show an acceleration in GDP growth. If actual data match the forecast, this would confirm a recovery in economic momentum and strengthen the US dollar.
28 May, 15:30 / US / Durable goods orders in April / prev.: -1.2% / actual: 0.8% / forecast: 3.5% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up
In March, new orders for durable goods in the US showed a rebound, rising 0.8% and beating modest market expectations. The main drivers were:
This points to the industry's resilience to geopolitical shocks. The April report is forecast to show a substantial acceleration in orders. If actual data match the forecast, it would confirm strong activity in the industrial sector and strengthen the US dollar.
28 May, 15:30 / US / PCE inflation (headline) in April / prev.: 2.8% / actual: 3.5% / forecast: 3.8% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up
The US annual PCE price index accelerated to 3.5% in March, a multi?month high. Current price?pressure dynamics remain above the long?term historical average. The April report is expected to show a further pickup in consumer inflation. Confirmation of the forecast would indicate persistent inflationary pressure and strengthen the US dollar.
28 May, 15:30 / US / Personal income (m/m) in April / prev.: 0% / actual: 0.6% / forecast: 0.4% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down Personal income in the US rose 0.6% in March, the strongest monthly increase in a year, supported by substantial expansion in:
Disposable income mirrored this trend, recovering after stagnation in the prior month. The April release is forecast to show a moderate slowdown in income growth. If the data confirm the forecast, this will signal a normalization of household cash flows and weaken the US dollar.
28 May, 15:30 / US / Personal spending (m/m) in April / prev.: 0.6% / actual: 0.9% / forecast: 0.5% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
Nominal personal spending in the US rose 0.9% in March, largely driven by higher spending on gasoline and energy due to the oil shock, as well as increased outlays on vehicles and medical services. Real consumer spending adjusted for inflation registered a small decline versus the prior period. The April report is expected to show a slowdown in nominal spending growth. Confirmation of the forecast would indicate cooling consumer activity and weaken the US dollar.
28 May, 15:30 / US / GDP deflator in Q1 / prev.: 3.8% / actual: 3.7% / forecast: 3.8% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up
In the previous period, the US GDP deflator rose 3.7%, reflecting persistent accumulated price pressure in the economy. The Q1 report is forecast to show a slight acceleration of this macro indicator to 3.8%. If final statistics confirm the forecast, this will point to a sustained inflationary backdrop and strengthen the US dollar.
28 May, 15:30 / US / Initial jobless claims (weekly) / prev.: 212k / actual: 209k / forecast: 211k / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 209,000 in the second week of May, confirming overall labor market stability and allowing policymakers to maintain restrictive policy if desired. Continued claims showed a moderate increase. The next weekly report is forecast to show a rise in new claims. That would signal a gradual cooling of the labor market and weaken the US dollar.
28 May, 17:00 / US / New?home sales (m/m) in April / prev.: 8.9% / actual: 7.4% / forecast: -3.2% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
Sales of new single?family homes in the US rose 7.4% in March, slowing somewhat after a strong February spike. The sector's current dynamics nevertheless remain well above long?term historical averages. The April report is forecast to show a sharp reversal into negative territory at -3.2%. If realized, this would indicate cooling demand in the housing market and weaken the US dollar.
28 May, 19:00 / US / Crude oil inventories (EIA) / prev.: -4.306 mln bbl / actual: -7.864 mln bbl / forecast: -5.0 mln bbl / Brent – down
US commercial crude stocks fell by 7.864 million barrels in the week to mid?May, significantly beating market expectations. The draw was accompanied by declines in gasoline inventories and a record release from strategic government reserves to cushion the impact of the global energy shock. The next report is forecast to show a moderate draw of -5.0 million barrels. If actual data match the forecast, it will indicate a partial stabilization of supply and put downward pressure on Brent prices.
28 May, 03:00, 10:15 / Eurozone / Speech by Philip Lane, ECB Governing Council / EUR/USD 28 May, 03:00 / US / Speech by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson / USDX 28 May, 10:20 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde / EUR/USD 28 May, 11:05 / UK / Speech by Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden / GBP/USD 28 May, 11:30 / Eurozone / Speech by Piero Cipollone, ECB Executive Board / EUR/USD 28 May, 15:55 / US / Speech by John Williams, President of the New York Fed / USDX 28 May, 18:45 / Eurozone / Speech by Isabel Schnabel, ECB Executive Board / EUR/USD
Speeches by senior central bank officials are also scheduled during these days. Their comments typically trigger volatility in currency markets as they may indicate future policy intentions on interest rates.
