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04.06.2026 08:38 AMThe more confusion there is in the Middle East, the more strongly the dollar reacts.
Demand for the dollar has returned following news that the escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran increased over the past 24 hours, with reports of new strikes, intercepts, and counteractions around Kuwait, Bahrain, and the Iranian coastline. Despite diplomatic signals, hostilities have not halted. Geopolitical tensions, which traditionally stimulate interest in the US dollar as a safe haven, have again made their mark, significantly impacting global financial markets. Traders, fearing further escalation of the conflict and its potential consequences for the global economy, have once more shown an inclination towards safe-haven assets.
Today, important data is expected on the change in retail sales volume in the Eurozone for April, with a decline forecast, along with a speech from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Retail sales data is a key indicator of consumer demand, which plays a significant role in overall economic growth. A decline in retail sales could indicate a slowdown in consumer activity, driven by various factors such as high inflation, reduced purchasing power, or overall economic uncertainty. If the forecast of declining retail sales is confirmed, it may heighten concerns about the Eurozone's economic growth prospects.
Christine Lagarde's speech gains particular significance against the backdrop of these economic signals. It is expected that the head of the European Central Bank will express her stance on the current level of inflation and possible measures to address it. Given that inflation remains high, Lagarde's rhetoric is likely to focus on restraining price growth.
As for the pound, key figures for the UK construction sector PMI index are expected this morning, along with an important speech from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. A firm position from the leadership is anticipated.
The construction sector PMI index is likely to shed light on the state of the British economy, reflecting activity in one of the key sectors. It is expected that the indicators will remain at relatively low levels, which could put pressure on the pound.
Particular attention will be paid to Bailey's speech, as his remarks may offer insights into future actions on inflation control. Given the current economic situation, many analysts expect the rhetoric to remain hawkish, emphasizing the commitment to combating price pressure.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data comes in significantly above or below economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy would be the best approach.
