আরও দেখুন
26.10.2026 06:00 AMThe GBP/USD currency pair on Friday again tried to correct after a notable rally, but the pound currently finds strong support in the 1.3357–1.3377 area. Technically, therefore, we should not expect sterling to decline until this zone is breached. Certainly, events over the next two weeks are highly likely to trigger new market "flights." The market is unlikely to ignore the Bank of England's first policy tightening, the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve meetings, the U.S. midterm elections, and Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports. Thus, we should expect high volatility and many surprises in the coming fortnight. For example, it is extremely difficult now to predict the midterms' outcome and, even more so, how the market will interpret and react to it. Accordingly, traders must be ready for any scenario. In our view, the key factor for sterling remains technical. After bounces from the lower boundaries of two sideways channels on higher timeframes, we expect a rise toward the upper boundaries of those channels. That allows sterling to reach at least 1.3650.
Technically, the pound continues forming a new uptrend. A correction is possible, but so far the pound cannot overcome the 1.3357–1.3377 support area. On Monday, the macro and fundamental backdrop will be absent, so traders are unlikely to have the strength to push through this range.
On the 5-minute TF, no trading signals formed on Friday. The price steadily moved into the 1.3357–1.3377 area and attempted to bounce from it several times, but volatility was extremely low, so we saw no interesting intraday moves.
COT reports for the pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated selling for several months. The net position is negative despite the long-term uptrend persisting. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that dollar demand remains high in 2026. The U.S.–Iran war is formally on pause but could resume soon. The Fed's changed monetary stance also supports the dollar, and the ascending trend line was breached; however, it was broken amid a flat, so we do not consider the uptrend complete.
In the long term, the dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly TF. Trade tensions will persist in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies aim, directly and indirectly, to weaken the U.S. currency. The long-term uptrend remains intact. According to the latest COT report (dated October 20), the "Non-commercial" group opened 10,000 BUY contracts and closed 16,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 26,500 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD continues to form a logical and consistent uptrend. On the daily and weekly TFs, the price cleared liquidity from recent lows and remained inside sideways channels. Therefore, one can expect the pound to rise at least to the 1.3650 level, the upper boundary of the sideways channel on the daily chart. We don't need reasons for the pound's rise, just as we didn't need reasons for the dollar's rise last month.
For October 26 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3248, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3272) and the Kijun-sen (1.3357) can also provide signals. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, so traders should account for this when determining trading signals.
Today, no major events or releases are scheduled in the UK or the US, so traders will have nothing to react to. We will likely see low volatility and continued flat trading.
Traders can consider the 1.3301–1.3309 area as a target for short positions if the price holds below the 1.3357–1.3377 area. A bounce from the 1.3357–1.3377 area makes 1.3465–1.3480 a target for long positions.
