On March 26, 2026, European Council President Antonio Costa characterized the current state of the European Union’s economy as a “very strong economic shock.” The escalating instability in the Middle East has triggered a sharp rise in energy prices and set the stage for a potential new migration crisis in the region. 

According to Antonio Costa’s statement, Brussels has begun immediate preparations for a potential influx of refugees amid ongoing hostilities. The prolonged conflict in Iran poses a threat to the socio-economic stability of member states and necessitates an urgent reassessment of budget priorities to secure borders. 

The European Central Bank has initiated an emergency risk assessment in the banking sector related to the Middle East crisis. The regulator is requesting liquidity data and changes in customer behavior from credit institutions. Particular attention is being paid to direct financial obligations that may be affected by the blockage of trade routes and declines in business activity.

The recent spike in natural gas prices has forced officials to acknowledge that European production is facing an inevitable major setback. Earlier, EU authorities had denied the direct impact of commodity market volatility on the bloc’s macroeconomic indicators. However, current price trends suggest a risk of a prolonged recession in key industrial sectors across Europe.