ব্যঙ্গাত্মক বর্ণনা এবং ফরেক্সের প্রবেশদ্বার বিন্যাস
Oil traders warn prolonged Iran conflict could trigger global recession
A sharp reduction in oil demand and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz threaten to push the global economy into a prolonged downturn if transport disruption in the Persian Gulf persists for more than three months, leading oil market participants warned.
Military action in Iran has already removed about 4 million barrels per day of demand from the market, a figure that could rise to as much as 5 million barrels per day next month. Russell Hardy, chief executive of Vitol Group, said the full economic effects of the conflict had not yet been felt. Executives at Gunvor Group warned that a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz would inevitably lead to a global recession because of acute shortages of crude on world markets.
The blockade of a major shipping artery has deprived the market of some 13 million barrels per day of supply and has forced petrochemical plants in China, Japan, and South Korea to halt operations. Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura, pointed to systemic shortages of hydrocarbons in non‑public sectors. "But if the crisis drags on, you just don't have those molecules, somebody has to go without. So that means a contraction of economic activity," Saad Rahim warned. Airlines including KLM, SAS, and Lufthansa have begun mass flight cancellations or are preparing contingency plans as jet fuel shortages emerge.
The International Energy Agency has cut its forecast for growth in global energy demand to zero for the first time since 2020. In Southeast Asia, higher fertilizer costs have already hit agriculture, prompting some rice farmers to abandon harvests. Although oil prices stabilized temporarily at about $95 a barrel on April 23, 2026, Gunvor executives said they expect renewed volatility if the armed confrontation continues.
প্রকাশিত 27 April 2026
© InstaFintech Group
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© InstaFintech Group
