Trade Review and Trading Advice for the European Currency

The test of the 1.1870 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a proper entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by nearly 20 points.

The European currency showed resilience in the first half of the day despite the lack of specific data from the eurozone. Speeches by representatives of the European Central Bank also had no impact on market sentiment, as traders learned nothing new. In the absence of strong drivers, the EUR/USD pair is likely to continue consolidating within a fairly narrow range, reacting to incoming information.

Next, market participants will focus on U.S. initial jobless claims data, as well as housing market sales figures. Although these indicators are considered less significant, they can still influence market conditions if the data diverges sharply from forecasts. If the published figures exceed expectations, this could strengthen the U.S. dollar, signaling the continued resilience of the American economy. Meanwhile, existing home sales serve as an important indicator of consumer confidence and housing credit availability. Strong sales figures may point to favorable macroeconomic conditions for consumers.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the 1.1891 level (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1911. At 1.1911, I plan to exit the market and also open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro can only be expected after weak U.S. data.Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1872 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1891 and 1.1911 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1872 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1850, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the case of strong U.S. data.Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1891 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1872 and 1.1850 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or a place to lock in profits manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or a place to lock in profits manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.