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27.05.2026 11:51 AMThe EUR/USD pair posted a slight decline on Tuesday. However, I would not place much emphasis on yesterday's consolidation below the 50.0% retracement level at 1.1630 or this morning's consolidation above that level. Trader activity has remained extremely low in recent days, so what we are currently observing is merely ordinary market noise. At this stage, traders see no strong reasons either to buy the euro or to buy the U.S. dollar.
The wave structure on the hourly chart currently remains straightforward. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the new upward wave has not even come close to the previous peak. Therefore, the trend remains bearish. The temporary ceasefire between Iran and the United States supported the bulls for an entire month, but this was later followed by a collapse in hopes for lasting peace. Bulls will only be able to resume an offensive if Iran and the United States sign an interim agreement and stop violating the ceasefire conditions.
There were several notable developments globally on Tuesday. First of all, attention should be drawn to another escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Navy launched several strikes on the Iranian coastline, where missile and drone launch systems are located. In addition, Iranian patrol boats also came under attack. Iran has not responded so far, but the ceasefire conditions have once again been violated during the peak of the negotiation process and preparations for signing an agreement. Additionally, ECB representative Isabel Schnabel stated that interest rates should be raised in June, and this became the first signal ahead of the June central bank meetings that one of their officials is advocating tighter monetary policy. Therefore, the probability of a rate hike in the eurozone is increasing, unlike in the United States or the United Kingdom. However, this factor currently holds little importance for traders. Yesterday, we saw neither euro growth due to the second factor nor dollar growth due to the first factor. Market movements remain very weak.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1617, which allows for a continuation of growth toward the next corrective level of 61.8% at 1.1706. However, the market is in no rush to open positions or draw conclusions, and at the moment I would recommend focusing primarily on the hourly chart, as price movements remain rather weak. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 9,249 Long positions and 15,936 Short positions. Over seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the conflict in Iran, while over the past eight weeks the situation has stabilized amid the suspension of military activity in the Middle East. The total number of Long positions held by speculators now stands at 233,000, while Short positions amount to 199,000. The gap is once again widening in favor of the euro.
Overall, from a long-term perspective, major market participants continue to show considerable interest in the euro. Naturally, global developments of various kinds — which have been abundant in recent years — continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market's attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict has merely been paused rather than resolved. Therefore, in the near term, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend not on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy, nor on economic data, but on further developments in Iran.
The economic calendar for May 27 once again contains no significant events. Therefore, the influence of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Wednesday will again be absent.
I would recommend selling the pair today if it consolidates below the 1.1630 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1578. Buy positions could have been opened after consolidation above the 1.1630 level, with targets at 1.1682 and 1.1745. These positions may still be held today.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1409–1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.
