Analysis of trades and trading advice for the British pound

The price test at 1.3448 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to sell the pound. As a result, the pair dropped to the target level of 1.3390.

The sharp increase in the number of employed persons in the U.S. non-farm sector by 172,000 led to a strengthening of the dollar and a decline in the British pound. This news, against the backdrop of mixed economic indicators, was a genuine surprise to markets, which had expected a more modest increase. The figure, significantly exceeding economists' forecasts, indicates unexpectedly high resilience of the American economy and its ability to create jobs even under uncertainty.

The U.S. dollar, receiving a powerful impulse, instantly strengthened against most global currencies. Investors, interpreting this data as a signal for possible acceleration of inflation and, consequently, an earlier or more aggressive increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, began actively increasing their dollar positions. The British pound, by contrast, came under strong pressure. Besides the overall trend of dollar strengthening, internal factors such as ongoing political instability in the UK or fears of a new energy crisis could have also impacted the pound.

Today will not bring us any news from the UK that could support the British pound. The lack of significant statistical data means that there will be few reasons for the GBP/USD pair to recover. The absence of new economic releases leaves the pair vulnerable to external factors and broader market sentiment. In this situation, the pair is expected to continue moving in response to Friday's U.S. labor market data.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy pounds today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3349 (green line on the chart), with the target being 1.3386 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3386, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is unlikely that growth in pounds can be expected today. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy pounds today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.3329 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market turn upwards. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.3349 and 1.3386.

Selling scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the 1.3329 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3297, where I plan to exit shorts and open longs immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound can return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decrease from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell pounds today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.3349 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market turn downwards. A decrease can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.3329 and 1.3297.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.