यह भी देखें
09.07.2026 10:33 AMOn the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3335 on Wednesday, reversed in favor of the pound, and consolidated above the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3382. Therefore, the upward movement may continue on Thursday toward the resistance level at 1.3454–1.3457. Consolidation below the 1.3382 level would favor the U.S. dollar and open the way for a moderate decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3335.
The wave structure turned bullish last week. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the new upward wave has surpassed the previous peak and continues to develop. Thus, the bulls remain in control, although I had expected this shift to occur about two to three weeks earlier. Better late than never. In my view, the bearish impulse that began in 2026 has now been completed.
There was effectively no significant economic news on Wednesday, with only geopolitical developments influencing the market. Although there was plenty of news, much of it could safely be filtered out. For example, I do not take Donald Trump's threats to withdraw the United States from the negotiations seriously, nor do I believe that the conflict in the Middle East will necessarily resume, although such a possibility cannot be ruled out. A renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would pose a much greater risk. Since Washington and Tehran have been unable to reach common ground and have already failed to uphold the agreement they signed just a few weeks ago, the prospects for peace remain extremely limited. If peace is not achieved, both sides are likely to continue applying pressure on each other. This means missile strikes may continue, and both parties could once again resort to blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, although negotiations are still ongoing, the two sides appear to be moving further apart. With no major economic events scheduled for the remainder of the week, traders are likely to focus primarily on geopolitical developments.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3159, reversed in favor of the pound, and advanced toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3409. Therefore, traders may expect the upward movement to continue toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% at 1.3467. A rebound from the 1.3409 level would favor the U.S. dollar and lead to a moderate decline toward 1.3348. No emerging divergences are currently observed.
Sentiment among the Non-commercial group became less bearish during the latest reporting week, although it remains bearish overall. The number of long positions held by speculative traders decreased by 3,623, while short positions declined by 7,195. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 37,000 versus 139,000. Bears have dominated the market in recent months. While this dominance previously raised a few questions, the situation has changed considerably due to the evolving fundamental backdrop. Bears still maintain more than a threefold advantage.
I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound. However, in the near term, market direction will depend less on economic data, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, and more on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has become more optimistic about the prospects for peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States may prove lengthy and difficult. There is no guarantee that they will ultimately result in the signing of a nuclear agreement.
The economic calendar for July 9 includes only two secondary releases. As a result, the impact of economic data on market sentiment on Thursday is expected to remain very limited or absent altogether.
Short positions may be considered today if the pair consolidates below the 1.3382 level on the hourly chart, with downside targets at 1.3335 and 1.3298. Alternatively, short positions may be considered following a rebound from the 1.3457 level, targeting 1.3382. Long positions were justified after the rebound from the 1.3335 level, with targets at 1.3382 and 1.3457. The first target has already been reached, and attention now shifts to the second.
Fibonacci retracement grids are plotted from 1.3457–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
