Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the British Pound

The test of the 1.3510 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. The second test of 1.3510 triggered the implementation of Scenario No. 2 for selling the pound, resulting in a decline of more than 25 points.

At the beginning of the European session, the empty economic calendar for the UK worked in favor of the pound, allowing it to withstand sellers' attempts to push the pair lower. Nevertheless, the calm proved temporary. Next, the market will focus on the ADP employment report, factory orders, and the Fed's Beige Book, with labor market data—and, more specifically, its deviation from forecasts—determining the dollar's subsequent behavior. For GBP/USD, this represents a direct risk, as a strong report will increase demand for the US currency and put the pound under pressure again. A weak result, especially following yesterday's data on the number of new job openings in the United States, will give the British currency a chance to extend the emerging stabilization.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point is reached around 1.3497 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the 1.3532 level (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3532, I will exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. A rise in the pound today can only be expected following weak US data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests the 1.3477 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3497 and 1.3532 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3477 level is breached (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3448 level, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Strong pressure on the pound will return following strong data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests the 1.3497 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3477 and 1.3448 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the approximate price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually fixed, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the approximate price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually fixed, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.