Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1224 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 10 points.

The euro declined against the US dollar following yesterday's gains, while data from Italy added to the pressure. The country's industrial production fell by 1.3% in August, compared with expectations of 0.0%, after rising by 0.7% the previous month. On an annual basis, the indicator remained unchanged at 0.0%. The gap between the forecast and the actual figure was too large for the market to ignore. The contrast was striking. Just yesterday, the euro benefited from the dollar's weakness following Trump's statement on Iran, while today's expected morning release turned out to be disappointing.

Now the focus shifts to the United States. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October will be the next key release, with a forecast of 47.6 compared with the previous reading of 48.1. Inflation expectations will also be released, with previous readings of 4.6% and 3.4%. In the evening, FOMC member Susan Collins is scheduled to speak. These events are expected to determine whether the euro can halt its decline.

As for the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1223 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1240. At 1.1240, the plan is to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro could rise today if US data come in weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just begun rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro will also be considered for buying today if the price tests the 1.1210 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair could rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1223 and 1.1240.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1210 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1188, where the plan is to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move away from that level in the opposite direction. Selling pressure on the pair could return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just begun declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro will also be considered for selling today if the price tests the 1.1223 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair could decline toward the lower levels of 1.1210 and 1.1188.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially when risk management rules are ignored and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the example presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the outset.