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15.10.2026 07:46 AM
"We are waiting for American warships to approach the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz so that we can sink them."
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have boiled over. Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Ali Ozmaei issued open threats against the US Navy: "We are waiting for American warships to approach the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz so that we can sink them." Tehran's bellicose rhetoric comes after a Wall Street Journal report that Iran is urgently reinforcing fortifications around critical sites, including nuclear infrastructure, and warns regional states it is prepared to deliver massive retaliatory strikes across the Middle East, mentally preparing the population for the resumption of large-scale hostilities in the coming weeks.
Against this backdrop, US President Donald Trump assured that US forces will refrain from direct strikes on Iran until the midterm elections on November 3. Meanwhile, shipping in the strait is effectively paralyzed by a series of incidents. On Wednesday, reports emerged of a cargo vessel that struck a naval mine while attempting to transit, caught fire and sank. Later, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) office confirmed that a large container ship was hit by an unidentified projectile. However, US Central Command (CENTCOM) categorically rejects Iran's claims of unilateral control over the Strait of Hormuz. US forces say they successfully transited tankers carrying more than 19m barrels of crude through the strait in the past 24 hours alone.
Inflation shock and the Fed's Beige Book
Meanwhile, US consumer inflation showed a sharp acceleration in September, rising to 3.7% from 3.4% and beating analysts' expectations. The key trigger was a colossal jump in energy prices, where annual inflation accelerated for the second month running to 20.4% (a peak since May), with a month-on-month rise of 5.2% — the largest monthly increase since March.
Within the energy basket the explosive dynamics came from the following:
Against this backdrop, Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee called the fresh data disconcerting, warning that the regulator will have to respond because allowing high price growth to persist for several more months is unacceptable to the Fed. The published Federal Reserve Beige Book confirmed growing stagflationary tendencies in the US economy. Although business activity modestly expanded in 9 of 12 districts (unchanged in the other three), growth rates in most regions remain weak and consumer spending has effectively stalled. Buyers are increasingly resisting elevated price tags, forcing businesses to selectively offer discounts and cut margins.
Price pressure has intensified:
High oil costs and record diesel prices hit all 12 Fed districts without exception, triggering transport surcharges and inflating supply chain costs alongside rising tariffs, raw materials, and insurance. The labor market is also unstable: in 5 districts firms are already cutting staff, postponing hires or trimming job creation plans amid active adoption of AI solutions. The print reshaped traders' sentiment. The probability of Fed tightening and another rise in the policy rate at the October meeting jumped to 49.3% from 21.6% before the release.
10-year US Treasury yields jumped 9 basis points (to 5.3%, approaching early-2002 highs). Two-year yields added 12 bp (to 4.9%). Against this backdrop, the US dollar launched a broad advance.Wall Street closed sharply lower under the weight of hawkish expectations and mounting problems in the tech segment:
At the epicenter of the sell-off were key AI-infrastructure favorites: AMD shares plunged 5.7%, Micron fell 4.1%, Nvidia's market cap fell 3.2%, and Broadcom slid 3.1%. In financials, Bank of America shares collapsed 4.8% after disappointing trading desk revenues in equities and fixed income, and Morgan Stanley shares fell 2.7%. Most analysts now expect only weak economic growth. Main risks: inflation, trade policy and geopolitical uncertainty.
October 15, 02:50 / Japan /**/ Core Machinery Orders for September / prev.: 16.9% / actual: 11.2% / forecast: 15.7% / USD/JPY — down
The dynamics of core machine tool orders in Japan for July showed a noticeable slowdown from a four-month peak as demand cooled outside volatile sectors such as shipbuilding and energy. In September, analysts expect acceleration in orders to resume. A revival of investment activity in machine tooling would strengthen the yen.
October 15, 03:30 / Australia /**/ Employment Change in September / prev.: -15.9k / actual: 39.5k / forecast: 20.0k / AUD/USD — down
Australia's August labor report recorded a substantial rebound in employment to a new historic high, more than offsetting the prior month's weakness. The key driver was part-time employment, which added 45.8k jobs, while full-time employment fell by 6.3k. The participation rate rose to 67.1%, confirming labor force inflow and supporting annual employment growth of 1.6%. In September, analysts expect a marked slowdown in hiring. Cooling job creation will weigh on the Australian dollar.
October 15, 07:30 / Japan /**/ Industrial production (final) for August / prev.: 4.9% / actual: 3.9% / forecast: 3.4% / USD/JPY — up
Preliminary estimates of industrial production in Japan for August reflected a gradual waning of growth momentum and remain below the long-term historical norm of 4.37%. The final August reading is expected to confirm a slowdown in industrial activity. The weaker industrial pace will pressure the yen.
October 15, 09:00 / United Kingdom /***/Trade Balance for August / prev.: -5.537bn / actual: -3.450bn / forecast: -3.600bn / GBP/USD — down
July's UK trade deficit narrowed materially to a year-to-date low, supported by a 2.1% rise in exports and a contraction of imports to a five-month low. Exports were helped by shipments of engineering goods and transport equipment to both EU and third-country partners. At the same time, imports fell amid reduced purchases of European machinery, offsetting a modest rise in services imports. In August, markets expect the trade deficit to widen. A rising external imbalance will pressure the pound.
October 15, 09:00 / United Kingdom /**/ GDP for August / prev.: 1.1% / actual: 1.6% / forecast: 1.7% / GBP/USD — up
The UK economy showed its strongest dynamics since last year in July, accelerating and significantly beating market expectations. Sustained upward momentum suggests key sectors have adapted to external challenges. Analysts expect growth acceleration to continue in August. Further strengthening of macro data will support the pound.
October 15, 09:00 / United Kingdom /**/ Construction output for August / prev.: -2.3% / actual: -2.5% / forecast: -1.6% / GBP/USD — up
The UK construction sector's contraction in July reached the deepest level since late 2025, extending a nine-month run of declines. The main pressure came from falling volumes of new work, down for the tenth consecutive month, while repair and maintenance activity showed only a minimal uptick. A small monthly increase of 0.1% barely offset the prior month's fall and did not reverse the negative three-month trend. The August report assumes a notable slowdown in the rate of contraction. Easing pressure on construction would support the pound.
October 15, 09:00 / United Kingdom /**/ Industrial production for August / prev.: 0.5% / actual: 2.6% / forecast: 2.3% / GBP/USD — down
July's UK industrial output showed a sharp acceleration, hitting a more-than-two-year high and materially beating preliminary expectations. Such a pronounced jump in activity was a positive outlier amid Europe-wide industrial difficulties. Analysts expect a moderate cooling and slower output growth in August. A slowdown in manufacturing momentum will weigh on the pound.
October 15, 09:45 / France / **/Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September (final) / prev.: 2.1% / actual: 2.4% / forecast: 3.0% / EUR/USD — up
Annual inflation in France has accelerated for the third consecutive month, approaching early-2024 highs. The key driver of the price surge was the energy segment, where gas and refined product price rises pushed inflation in the sector to 21.2%. Fresh food and services added further upward pressure, while the decline in prices for industrial goods has virtually ended and tobacco products kept high growth rates. Analysts expect further strengthening of inflationary pressure in September. A pickup in consumer inflation in the euro area's second-largest economy raises the probability that the ECB will maintain a hawkish tone, which would support the euro.
October 15, 12:00 / Eurozone / **/Industrial production for August / prev.: -0.3% / actual: 0% / forecast: -0.1% / EUR/USD — down
July's eurozone industrial production managed to avoid a contraction and beat consensus, yet output growth continues to lag the region's long-term historical norm. The protracted near-zero dynamic in production capacity reflects persistent difficulties in the European industrial sector amid weak external demand and high costs. The August report assumes a return of the sector's indicators to contraction. Further weakening of industrial activity will put pressure on the euro.
October 15, 15:30 / Canada / **/Wholesale trade for August (final) / prev.: 2.8% / actual: 0.3% / forecast: -1.5% / USD/CAD — up
Canada's wholesale sector showed a sharp deterioration in August: sales excluding energy and grains swung from a modest July rise to a deep decline. The main weak spots were agricultural supplies and the motor vehicle parts segment, underscoring a rapid cooling of intermediate demand domestically. The expected contraction in wholesale trade signals growing problems in distribution chains and will exert noticeable pressure on the Canadian dollar.
October 15, 15:30 / USA / **/Retail sales for September (m/m) / prev.: -0.5% / actual: 1.2% / forecast: 0.3% / USDX (six-currency USD index) — down
US August retail sales posted a strong rebound, the best gain in five months, more than offsetting July's slump. The main impulse came from spending at:
Only a modest decline hit building materials.The control group used directly in GDP calculation rose 1.4%, confirming consumer resilience. Consensus expects a sharp cooling of this impulse in September. A notable slowdown in consumer spending will cool market enthusiasm and push the US dollar lower.
October 15, 15:30 / USA / ***/Producer price index (PPI) for September / prev.: 4.8% / actual: 5.4% / forecast: 5.3% / USDX — down
US producer prices accelerated in August, slightly exceeding expectations due to higher energy costs and with core PPI holding at 4.6%.Monthly business costs growth was moderate, signaling no new uncontrolled inflationary wave in the production link.Markets expect a modest slowdown in wholesale inflation in September. Easing price pressure in industry will weigh on the greenback.
October 15, 15:30 / USA / ***/Retail sales for September (y/y) / prev.: 5.0% / actual: 6.0% / forecast: 5.2% / USDX — down
Year-on-year US retail sales for August showed a strong rise to 6.0%, well above long-term historical norms. This pronounced consumer activity was largely supported by a stable labor market and accumulated household optimism. Analysts expect spending to return to more moderate rates in the next release. A cooling in retail turnover dynamics will put pressure on the US dollar.
October 15, 15:30 / USA / **/Initial jobless claims / prev.: 199k / actual: 197k / forecast: 200k / USDX (six-currency USD index) — down
Fresh unemploymentclaims data confirmed resilience in the US labor market: initial claims have settled near multi-year lows, and continuing claims remain around a three-year trough. The persistently low level of layoffs holds even amid localized workforce optimizations in federal agencies. The upcoming release is expected to show a modest rise in initial claims. Early signs of an increase in requests for government support could weaken the US currency.
October 15, 15:30 / USA / **/Empire State manufacturing index (NY Fed) for October (leading) / prev.: 20.6 / actual: 7.6 / forecast: 10.3 / USDX — up
September business activity readings in New York State's manufacturing sector reflected a sharp cooling:
Despite higher resource costs, the sector's employment potential remained resilient — average workweek length rose to a nearly five-year high, and long-term managerial expectations stayed markedly optimistic. Markets expect manufacturing activity in the region to pick up in October. Strengthening industrial activity would support the US dollar.
October 15, 15:30 / USA / **/Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for October (leading) / prev.: 47.4 / actual: 37.8 / forecast: 28.4 / USDX — down
Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed's district eased somewhat after August's surge but remained at solid levels:
Companies are notably upbeat about the six-month outlook: nearly 58% of surveyed firms expect further expansion versus only 5% pessimistic. The October report is expected to show a significant slowdown in regional manufacturing growth. Cooling industrial activity would weigh on the greenback.
October 15, 17:30 / USA / **/EIA crude oil inventories / prev.: +0.922m bbl / actual: -3.186m bbl / forecast: -0.831m bbl / Brent — up
The weekly US Energy Information Administration report recorded a deep drawdown in crude inventories — the largest decline in five weeks — as refinery runs rose to a two-and-a-half-month high. A modest inflow of crude into the Cushing hub and a small increase in gasoline stocks were fully offset by:
Analysts expect the trend of falling crude inventories to continue in the next release. Further commercial stock draws would support Brent prices.
October 16
October 16, 12:00 / Eurozone /***/ Trade balance for August / prev.: 7.2bn / actual: 14.2bn / forecast: 14.7bn / EUR/USD — up
July's eurozone trade surplus widened to a nine-month high as goods exports jumped to a record €276bn. Strong performance in chemicals and industrial goods offset weakness in machinery shipments and helped substantially narrow the energy deficit. Rising demand from the US, UK and Switzerland was the main external driver, more than offsetting weaker trade with China. Analysts expect the trade surplus to expand further in August. A stronger external position will support the euro.
October 16, 12:00 / Eurozone / ***/CPI (final) for September / prev.: 2.9% / actual: 3.2% / forecast: 3.8% / EUR/USD — up
Preliminary inflation in the eurozone showed a powerful price surge, pushing the annual rate toward three-year highs amid the Middle East crisis. The energy component jumped to 18.8%, while food and services also accelerated, and core inflation rose to 2.5%.The consumer price acceleration affected all major economies in the currency bloc — Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. The final September release is expected to confirm significant acceleration. Sustained high price pressure would increase the likelihood of a hawkish ECB stance, supporting the euro.
October 16, 15:15 / Canada /**/ Housing starts (new foundations laid) in September / prev.: 229.4k / actual: 229.0k / forecast: 232.5k / USD/CAD — down
Canada's housing starts in August remained near zero growth, registering the lowest level since spring last year. The subdued picture reflected a slowdown in urban construction, where starts fell 2%, though regional dynamics were mixed: Montreal and Vancouver showed a six-month trend increase of 6% each due to interest in multi-unit projects, while Toronto remained stagnant. Analysts expect a notable rebound in developer activity in September. A recovery in housing starts would bolster the Canadian dollar.
October 16, 15:30 / USA /***/ Export prices for September / prev.: 8.1% / actual: 8.6% / forecast: 9.4% / USDX — up
US export prices continued to rise in August, accelerating year-on-year after revisions to July. Current rates of price increases for US goods abroad far exceed long-term norms, underscoring persistent global price pressure and the pass-through of higher production costs to foreign buyers. Analysts expect further acceleration in export prices. Stronger external price inflation will support the US dollar.
October 16, 15:30 / USA / ***/Import prices for September / prev.: 6.1% / actual: 7.0% / forecast: 7.9% / USDX — up
US import prices in August approached four-year highs, recording a solid annual rise well above the long-run average of around 1.5%. This pronounced increase in import costs transmits external logistic and commodity shocks into the domestic economy, feeding broader inflation. The September report is expected to show further acceleration in import prices. Sustained high imported inflation will bolster the greenback.
October 16, 15:30 / USA / **/NY Fed services business index for October (leading) / prev.: 0.5 / actual: -8.7 / forecast: -9.0 / USDX — down
September's New York Fed survey showed a sharp deterioration in regional services sector sentiment:
About half of surveyed firms reported an adverse business environment amid supply disruptions, falling employment and frozen capital expenditures, while demand weakness accompanied fresh jumps in input costs and higher selling prices. Analysts expect a deepening downturn in the region's services sector in October. Worsening services dynamics will weigh on the US dollar.
October 16, 16:15 / USA /***/Industrial production for September / prev.: 1.13% / actual: 1.40% / forecast: 1.00% / USDX — down
US industrial output showed moderate year-on-year improvement in August, but the overall trajectory still lags long-run benchmarks. The sector's expansion remains modest amid higher borrowing costs and restrained end-demand. A notable cooldown in industrial growth is expected in September.Slowing industrial production will put pressure on the dollar.
October 12–18 / IMF and World Bank annual meetings (Bangkok, Thailand) — selected central bank speeches:
October 15, 04:30 / Japan — Junko Koeda, BOJ Policy Board member — USD/JPY
October 15, 05:45 / Eurozone — Claudia Buch, ECB Single Supervisory Board — EUR/USD
October 15, 05:55 / USA — Michelle Bowman, Fed Board governor — USDX
October 15, 06:40 / UK — Hugh Pill, BoE MPC member — GBP/USD
October 15, 06:40 / UK — Sam Woods, Deputy Governor, Bank of England — GBP/USD
October 15, 07:30 / Eurozone — Martin Schlegel, SNB chairman — USD/CHF
October 15, 10:50 / UK — Victoria Cleland, Bank of England — GBP/USD
October 15, 12:00 / Canada — Carolyn Rogers, Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada — USD/CAD
October 15, 20:15 / New Zealand — Adrian Orr, RBNZ Governor — NZD/USD
October 15, 23:30 / USA — Beth Hammack, President, Cleveland Fed — USDX
October 16, 05:00 / UK — Andrew Bailey, BoE Governor — GBP/USD
October 16, 05:30 / Eurozone — Joachim Nagel, ECB Governing Council — EUR/USD
October 16, 06:30 / USA — Kevin Warsh, Fed Chair — USDX
October 16, 07:15 / Canada — Tiff Macklem, Bank of Canada Governor — USD/CAD
October 17, 09:45 / UK — Andrew Bailey, BoE Governor — GBP/USD
Additional speeches by senior central bank officials are expected over these days; their comments typically drive FX volatility by signaling future policy intentions.
A link to the economic calendar.
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