Trade review and tips for trading the euro

A price test at 1.1236 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose toward the 1.1269 target area.

EUR/USD moved higher today despite few eurozone-specific drivers. Key points: final September eurozone CPI confirmed 3.8% year-on-year as expected (preliminary was the same) versus 3.2% in August. Core CPI remained at the expected 2.5% (2.4% prior). These readings show inflation is not only high but spreading into more components. Trade data were weaker: the eurozone recorded a €6.8bn goods deficit in August versus an expected €4.5bn surplus. The market mostly ignored that because attention focused on the dollar.

The euro enters the second half of the day with good chances to extend gains because the US calendar is almost empty. The only US items of note are industrial production, manufacturing output, and capacity utilization — measures of how active industry is — and they are unlikely to give the dollar a fresh impulse. If those prints are weak, dollar demand will soften, and risk assets should continue to rally.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy signal

Scenario 1: Buy the euro today near 1.1275 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.1309. I plan to exit at 1.1309 and also sell EUR there, aiming for a 30–35 pip retracement from the entry. Expect euro gains today after weak US data. Important: before buying, ensure MACD is above zero and just beginning to rise.

Scenario 2: Also consider buying if price tests 1.1254 twice while MACD is in the oversold area. That would limit downside potential and trigger a reversal higher. Expect moves to 1.1275 and 1.1309.

Sell signal

Scenario 1: Plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1254 (red line on the chart). Target 1.1221, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions (aiming for a 20–25 pip reversal). Pressure on the pair can return at any time. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and just beginning to fall.

Scenario 2: Also consider selling if price tests 1.1275 twice while MACD is in the overbought area. That would limit upside potential and trigger a reversal down. Expect declines to 1.1254 and 1.1221.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line — entry price at which you can buy the instrument.
• Thick green line — suggested Take-Profit area or a level where you may choose to lock in gains, because further upside above that level is unlikely.
• Thin red line — entry price at which you can sell the instrument.
• Thick red line — suggested Take-Profit area or a level where you may choose to lock in gains, because further downside below that level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, watch for overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental releases to avoid getting caught in sharp price moves. If you trade during news releases, always place stop orders to limit losses. Without stop orders,, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one shown above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market noise are a losing strategy for intraday traders.