While Bitcoin struggles not to "fall flat," a new political risk is adding pressure. According to media reports, one of Congress's leading crypto critics, Elizabeth Warren, could chair the Senate Banking Committee. The Democrats' victory opened that path, and the market gained another reason for caution amid the tech selloff and the fallout from the Binance hack. Recall that the committee shapes the fate of any crypto law, so a change of chair effectively changes the rules of the game for the industry.

A chair's powers are materially broader than those of a committee minority leader. Warren would gain the authority to launch investigations, summon company executives to hearings, and oversee the financial industry. Trump-linked crypto projects, including World Liberty Financial—flagged by Democrats immediately after their victory—would likely come under scrutiny. Warren earlier asked regulators to pause consideration of that firm's bank licence application until Trump exits the business, and she warned that "we have never seen conflicts of this scale." Prediction markets could also attract attention because of potential insider trading.

Legislative consequences are no less serious. The Banking Committee plays a central role in advancing a crypto bill, and each procedural step can now be prolonged with hearings and requests for additional safeguards. CLARITY Act already failed a procedural Senate vote at 49–50, and now the bill faces a more hostile chair. That further erodes the already low odds of passage in the near term.

Democrats are preparing their own CLARITY alternative. It envisions separate supervision by the SEC and the CFTC, but with a larger SEC role and a narrower remit for the CFTC. That is a meaningful shift for the industry because the SEC traditionally treats tokens more aggressively and often classifies them as securities. The draft would also include restrictions on crypto activities by Trump and other federal officials. Republicans call the initiative political; a presidential veto—which cannot be overridden without a two-thirds majority—makes rapid passage unlikely.

The combination is damaging for markets: without a law there is no clarity for institutional capital, and with a tough chair the risk of investigations and high-profile hearings rises. Attracting fresh capital under such conditions is difficult, especially while ETF funds are bleeding money. I expect Bitcoin to remain under pressure until the tech sector stabilizes, and I see trading below $76,000 with a test of support at $73,800.

Bitcoin

The market trades in a narrow range between $75,000 and $75,800, and the plan is built around two mirror directions with full breakout and rejection scenarios. A buy is considered on a break above $75,800 if the price holds above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero; the target then lies at $77,200, where profits should be taken and a short on the pullback considered. If a downside break below $75,000 proves false and the price returns, buy from that level, targeting $75,800 and then $77,200.

Sell scenarios are mirrored. A confirmed break below $75,000, when the 50-day MA is above price and Awesome is below zero, opens a short toward $73,800. If a breakout above $75,800 fails to hold and the price is rejected, sell into the move to $75,000 and then lower to $73,800.

Ether

The logic mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale: range set by $2,210 (support) and $2,234 (resistance), with $2,067 below and $2,283 above as additional references. A buy is considered on a break above $2,234 provided the price is above the 50-day MA and Awesome is above zero, with a target of $2,283 where profits should be taken; alternatively, if a downside false break below $2,210 reverses, buy toward $2,234 and then $2,283.

A sell is opened on a confirmed break below $2,210 when the MA is above price and Awesome is below zero, targeting $2,067; or on a failed attempt to clear $2,234, targeting $2,210 and then $2,067. Both indicators are used as filters to discard false moves rather than standalone entry triggers; decisions are taken only after price has actually confirmed the indicated levels.