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Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium, the Federal Reserve Chairman maintained a hawkish stance. Kevin Warsh stated that despite more positive summer data, inflation in the US remains high, and no significant improvement in underlying trends is observed. The Fed Chair emphasized the need to ensure inflation returns to the target level of 2%, warning that otherwise the Fed has "a lot of work left" regarding monetary policy tightening. However, Kevin Warsh did not provide direct indications of the regulator's actions at upcoming meetings, lacking clear decision-making frameworks.
Warsh's cautious statements triggered a sharp increase in expectations for a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, investors raised the likelihood of a rate increase to 55.7%. In other words, forecasts jumped by about 20% in just one day. Data from other analytical markets shows a similar trend:
The central bank boss stressed that improving summer indicators do not indicate a turning point, urging markets to focus on actual statistics rather than expect the Fed to attempt to predict the future. According to Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, Warsh's ultimatum paves the way for tightening monetary policy by October or December. The market's reaction to Warsh's speech was unequivocal: yields on US Treasury bonds sharply rose amid strengthened expectations of policy tightening. The yield on 2-year bonds (most sensitive to Fed rate predictions) surged to about 4.31%—the highest level since late July. Investors believe that the direction of interest rates will ultimately be determined by new inflation and employment data set to be released in the next two and a half weeks before the September 16 meeting.
Additionally, the Fed Chair's tough rhetoric triggered sell-offs across all asset classes:
Nvidia clearly stands out from the general trend, essentially becoming a key financial institution in the AI industry. Morgan Stanley characterized Nvidia's new strategy as "balance as a service." To support the purchasing power of its customers, Nvidia provides major buyers with payment deferrals of up to a year, leading to accounts receivable rising to $63.1 billion, while the average collection period increased from 45 to 60 days. The operating model includes guaranteeing income to cloud providers in exchange for a share of rental revenue, and the volume of disclosed guarantees reached $108.5 billion (including $105 billion for projects with OpenAI from the 2029 fiscal year). Additionally, the company attracts external investors through preliminary agreements amounting to $500 billion for co-financing infrastructure.
The company's portfolio of public and private investments has grown to $99 billion, including stakes in:
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang expressed that his only regret was the lack of even earlier investments. According to CFO Colette Kress, the demand from AI labs is growing faster than their balance sheets, and financial support for such clients will account for up to 25% of Nvidia's business next year, generating $7.8 billion in investment income over the past quarter. The chipmaker's report showed that revenue for Q2 rose to $96.2 billion (of which $89 billion came from data centers), and the forecast for Q3 was raised to $108 billion. The company returned $25.8 billion to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks, exceeding free cash flow of $21.3 billion, and issued $25 billion in bonds. Nvidia's financial balance is becoming part of the global AI infrastructure, financing customer purchases on both sides of the transactions.
August 31, 2:50 / Japan / Industrial Production in July / previous: -2.1% / actual: 4.9% / forecast: 3.0% / USD/JPY – up Japan's industrial production showed a sharp rise, significantly exceeding the long-term averages. The growth of the industrial sector was supported by:
In July, growth rates are expected to slow to 3.0%. If the data aligns with expectations, the yen may face moderate pressure.
August 31, 2:50 / Japan / Retail Sales in July / previous: 5.0% / actual: 0.5% / forecast: 3.0% / USD/JPY – up
Retail sales growth in Japan sharply slowed, recording the weakest result in the past five months. The decline in consumer spending was influenced by:
In July, sales are expected to accelerate to 3.0%. If forecasts are met, the rise in consumer demand will support the Japanese yen.
August 31, 4:30 / Australia / Corporate Profit in Q2 / previous: 1.5% / actual: 5.9% / forecast: 0.5% / AUD/USD – down
Corporate profits of Australian businesses significantly declined, negating the positive results of the previous period. Key factors for the deterioration included:
In Q2, analysts expect profit growth to slow down to 0.5%. This result will signal cooling in the business sector and may weaken the Australian dollar.
August 31, 4:00 / Australia / TD Securities Inflation Index for August / previous: -0.4% / actual: 1.0% / forecast: 0.4% / AUD/USD – down
The monthly inflation index in Australia completely offset the June decline, showing signs of renewed price pressure. The dynamics were influenced by:
In August, price growth is expected to slow to 0.4%. A drop in inflation will prompt the RBA to consider lowering rates, which could weaken the Australian dollar.
August 31, 4:30 / China / PMI Manufacturing Index for August / previous: 50.3 p. / actual: 49.2 p. / forecast: 49.7 p. / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down
The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China unexpectedly fell into contraction territory, reaching lows not seen since late winter. The sector's decline was influenced by:
In August, the market expects a rebound in the index to 49.7 points. Meeting the forecast will confirm growth issues in the Chinese economy, increasing demand for oil.
August 31, 4:30 / China / Non-Manufacturing PMI for August / previous: 50.2 p. / actual: 49.0 p. / forecast: 50.4 p. / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down
The non-manufacturing PMI in China unexpectedly fell into contraction territory, breaking a two-month growth streak. The deterioration in the indicators was influenced by:
In August, the index is expected to return to growth, reaching 50.4 points. If this scenario unfolds, oil prices and the Chinese yuan will receive support.
August 31, 8:00 / Japan / Consumer Confidence Index for August / previous: 33.8 p. / actual: 34.9 p. / forecast: 35.0 p. / USD/JPY – down
Consumer confidence in Japan demonstrated positive dynamics, reaching its highest level since late winter. Factors contributing to the rise in optimism include:
In August, expectations are set for further increases in the index to 35.0 points. Meeting this forecast could boost the Japanese yen.
August 31, 8:00 / Japan / New Housing Construction Volume in July / previous: 33.9% / actual: 18.6% / forecast: 7.9% / USD/JPY – up
The volume of new housing construction in Japan increased by 18.6%, maintaining positive dynamics for the third consecutive month. The structure of the housing sector was influenced by:
In July, growth rates are expected to slow to 7.9%, which could negatively impact the yen's position.
August 31, 15:00 / Germany / Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August (preliminary) / previous: 2.3% / actual: 2.8% / forecast: 2.9% / EUR/USD – up
Annual inflation in Germany accelerated to 2.8%, reaching the highest level since April. Price increases were driven by:
In August, further acceleration of inflation to 2.9% is expected. In this case, inflationary risks will persist, supporting the European currency.
August 31, 17:30 / USA / Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for August / previous: 0.0 p. / actual: 1.3 p. / forecast: 0.7 p. / USDX (6-currency index of USD) – up
The manufacturing activity index in Texas returned to growth territory. Improvements in market conditions were supported by:
In August, a decline in activity is expected, which will indicate unstable performance and weaken the US dollar.
September 1, 1:30 / Australia / PMI Manufacturing Index for August / previous: 51.5 p. / actual: 52.2 p. / forecast: 52.2 p. / AUD/USD – volatile The Manufacturing PMI in Australia remained in the growth zone, indicating a gradual recovery of the sector. The dynamics were influenced by:
In August, the index is expected to remain at 52.2 points. Confirmation of these figures will indicate sector stability and may add volatility to the Australian dollar.
September 1, 2:01 / United Kingdom / BRC Retail Price Index for August / previous: 1.2% / actual: 0.9% / forecast: 1.0% / GBP/USD – up
Retail price growth in British stores has noticeably slowed, recording the weakest pace since late last year. The positive dynamics were supported by:
In August, analysts expect a slight increase in the index to 1.0%. This would support the position of the British pound.
September 1, 2:50 / Japan / Capital Expenditures in Q2 / previous: 6.5% / actual: 0.0% / forecast: 0.2% / USD/JPY – down
Japanese companies' spending on equipment and infrastructure stalled at zero, breaking a streak of growth over the previous four quarters. Factors influencing the stagnation in corporate investments included:
In Q2, modest growth is expected, which would be a positive factor for the yen.
September 1, 3:30 / Japan / PMI Manufacturing Index for August / previous: 54.8 p. / actual: 54.5 p. / forecast: 55.1 p. / USD/JPY – down
Manufacturing activity in Japan continued to expand for the eighth consecutive month, showing the best pace since spring. The sector's strengthening was facilitated by:
However, the rise in prices for finished goods remained high due to expensive energy and the weak national currency. In August, analysts expect an increase in activity to 55.1 points. If the data aligns with the forecast, it will indicate a solid recovery in industry, which will push the Japanese yen higher.
September 1, 3:30 / Australia / Building Permits in July (Leading) / previous: -1.6% / actual: 7.2% / forecast: -4.8% / AUD/USD – down
The number of building permits for residential housing in Australia rose to a four-month high (18,328 units). The revival in developer activity was supported by:
At the same time, declines were recorded in Tasmania (-22.5%) and Victoria (-13.9%). In July, a 4.8% decline in permits is expected. A decrease in this measure may weaken the Australian dollar.
September 1, 4:45 / China / PMI Manufacturing Index from RatingDog for August / previous: 51.7 p. / actual: 50.9 p. / forecast: 50.9 p. / Brent and USD/CNY – volatile
The PMI for China's manufacturing sector fell to a four-month low, remaining in the growth zone. The slowdown was influenced by:
In August, the index is expected to remain at 50.9 points. This could bring volatility to Brent oil prices.
September 1, 9:00 / Germany / Retail Sales in July / previous: 2.1% / actual: -0.2% / forecast: 0.2% / EUR/USD – up
Retail sales dynamics in Germany moved into negative territory, showing a decline of 0.2%. The figure was significantly lower than the historical average growth rates for retail turnover. In July, markets expect a recovery in sales to 0.2%. If the indicators turn positive, the euro will gain momentum for strengthening.
September 1, 9:00 / United Kingdom / Nationwide House Price Index for August / previous: 2.2% / actual: 1.8% / forecast: 2.0% / GBP/USD – up
House prices in the UK have slowed due to geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs. The property market was influenced by:
In August, prices are expected to accelerate to 2.0%. If this scenario is realized, it will indicate stabilization in the property market and push the pound higher.
September 1, 10:55 / Germany / PMI Manufacturing Index for August / previous: 50.3 p. / actual: 52.2 p. / forecast: 54.1 p. / EUR/USD – up
The manufacturing activity index in Germany showed a solid increase, reaching its highest pace since spring 2022. The industry was supported by:
In August, analysts expect further increases in the index to 54.1 points. If these forecasts materialize, the euro will receive a strong incentive for growth.
September 1, 11:00 / Eurozone / PMI Manufacturing Index for August / previous: 51.4 p. / actual: 51.9 p. / forecast: 52.8 p. / EUR/USD – up
The manufacturing sector in the Eurozone showed the maximum expansion rate in the last four years. The recovery of the industry was supported by:
In August, an increase in the index to 52.8 points is expected. In this scenario, a positive reaction from the euro is likely.
September 1, 11:30 / United Kingdom / PMI Manufacturing Index for August / previous: 52.5 p. / actual: 51.9 p. / forecast: 51.5 p. / GBP/USD – down
The manufacturing sector in the UK lost some momentum, dropping to five-month lows. The slowdown in manufacturing activity was influenced by:
Despite these challenges, business optimism continues to improve thanks to hopes for economic stabilization. In August, analysts forecast a decline in the index to 51.5 points. This drop could put pressure on the British pound.
September 1, 12:00 / Eurozone / Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August / previous: 2.8% / actual: 2.9% / forecast: 3.2% / EUR/USD – up
Consumer inflation in the Eurozone has begun to accelerate again, moving away from the European Central Bank's target of 2%. The main drivers of price growth were:
At the same time, the growth of prices for food, tobacco, and alcohol has slightly slowed. In August, markets are pricing in further inflation acceleration to 3.2%. If these figures are confirmed, the ECB will have to maintain a tight monetary policy, which would support the euro.
The manufacturing sector in Canada demonstrated significant expansion, reaching its highest levels since summer 2022. The industry was supported by:
However, exports declined amid trade tariffs, and the supply deficit fueled cost inflation to a four-year high. Against this backdrop, business confidence has weakened. For August, experts expect a correction in the index to 52.7 points. If such a cooling occurs, the Canadian currency may face pressure, pushing the USD/CAD pair higher.
September 1, 16:45 / US / S&P Global Manufacturing Activity Index for August / previous: 53.9 p. / actual: 53.9 p. / forecast: 53.2 p. / USDX (6-currency index of USD) – down
The PMI in the US manufacturing sector decreased, indicating a gradual slowdown in activity. The dynamics of the indicator were influenced by:
In August, a slowdown in the indicator to 53.2 points is expected. If the data aligns with expectations, the US dollar may come under pressure.
September 1, 17:00 / US / ISM Manufacturing Activity Index for August / previous: 53.3 p. / actual: 55.6 p. / forecast: 55.3 p. / USDX (6-currency index of USD) – down
The ISM manufacturing index rose to its highest level since May 2022, showing confident sector expansion. The industry was supported by:
In August, a decrease in the index is expected, which will pressure the US dollar.
September 1, 17:00 / US / JOLTS Job Openings in July / previous: 7.537 million / actual: 7.359 million / forecast: 7.390 million / USDX (6-currency index of USD) – up
The number of job openings in the US decreased, failing to meet market expectations. The weak demand dynamics for labor were influenced by:
At the same time, growth in vacancies was recorded only in transportation, warehousing, and the public sector. In July, the number of vacancies is expected to be around 7.390 million. If the figure aligns with the forecast, it will signal growth in the labor market, which could support the US dollar.
September 1, 17:00 / US / Voluntary Resignations in July / previous: 3.153 million / actual: 3.232 million / forecast: 3.210 million / USDX (6-currency index of USD) – up
The number of voluntary resignations in the US showed moderate growth, recovering from a downturn. The dynamics of the labor market were determined by:
In July, the value is expected to retreat to 3.210 million. Confirmation of these data will indicate stability in employment levels, which will play in favor of the strengthening dollar.
September 1, 23:30 / US / API Crude Oil Inventories / previous: -0.328 million barrels / actual: 4.200 million barrels / forecast: - / Brent – volatile
Commercial crude oil inventories in the US showed a significant increase, offsetting the decline of the previous week. The dynamics of the report are characterized by:
September 2, 1:30 / Australia / Ai Group Industry Activity Index for August / previous: -30.0 p. / actual: -29.9 p. / forecast: -32.0 p. / AUD/USD – down The Ai Group Industry Activity Index in Australia remained close to previous values. The situation in the sector was influenced by several factors:
In August, the index is expected to dip to -32 points, which will be an unfavorable factor for the Australian dollar.
September 2, 4:30 / Australia / GDP in Q2 / previous: 2.5% / actual: 2.5% / forecast: 1.6% / AUD/USD – up
Australia's economy demonstrated stable growth rates, aligning with the revised figures from the previous period. However, the overall GDP growth remains below the long-term historical average of 3.31%. In Q2, analysts expect GDP growth to slow to 1.6%. This will create grounds for a decline in the Australian dollar.
September 2, 5:00, 6:00 / New Zealand / Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference / previous: 2.25% / actual: 2.50% / forecast: 2.75% / NZD/USD – up
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand previously raised the benchmark interest rate to 2.50%. The adjustment of monetary parameters was more restrained than the market consensus of 2.75%. The more moderate rate hike signals a cautious approach to tightening policy. In the current conditions, this decision is likely to support the New Zealand dollar.
September 2, 15:15 / US / ADP Employment Change for August / previous: 95 thousand / actual: 44 thousand / forecast: 47 thousand / USDX (6-currency index of USD) – up
Employment growth in the US private sector slowed to the lowest level in the last six months. The labor market situation was influenced by:
However, vacancy growth was noted only in transportation, warehousing, and the public sector. In August, the market expects modest employment growth to 47 thousand. If the pace of job creation confirms an increase, the US dollar will receive moderate support.
September 2, 16:30, 17:30 / Canada / Bank of Canada Rate Decision, Press Conference / previous: 2.25% / actual: 2.25% / forecast: 2.25% / USD/CAD – volatile
The Bank of Canada maintained its key interest rate at 2.25% for the sixth consecutive time. The accompanying rhetoric from the regulator included:
The pause in changing rates and forecasts for slower GDP growth indicate a cautious stance from the Bank of Canada. Against this backdrop, the Canadian dollar may experience volatility.
September 2, 17:00 / US / July Manufacturing Orders Volume (m/m) / previous: -1.1% / actual: -0.3% / forecast: 0.6% / USDX (6-currency index of USD) – up
The volume of manufacturing orders in the US continued to decline, marking a reduction for the second consecutive month. The figures were influenced by:
In July, a return to growth in orders to 0.6% is anticipated. If this scenario plays out, the US dollar may strengthen.
September 2, 17:30 / US / EIA Crude Oil Inventories / previous: 4.405 million / actual: 0.095 million / forecast: 5.822 million / Brent – down
Commercial crude oil inventories in the US showed a slight increase, leaving overall volumes at 428.9 million barrels. The dynamics of the report are characterized by:
For the upcoming period, an increase in inventories to 5.822 million barrels is anticipated. In this case, prices for Brent oil could decline.
September 1, 16:05 / US / Speech by Deputy Head of the US Fed for Supervision Michael Barr / USDXSeptember 1, 19:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Boris Vujcic from the Governing Council of the ECB / EUR/USDSeptember 2, 3:30 / Eurozone / Speech by Joachim Nagel from the Governing Council of the ECB / EUR/USDSeptember 2, 4:30 / Japan / Speech by Hajime Takata from the Political Council of the Bank of Japan / USD/JPYSeptember 2, 6:00 / New Zealand / Speech by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Anna Breman / NZD/USD**September 2, 16:30 / Eurozone / Speech by Claudia Buch from the Single Supervisory Board of the ECB / EUR/USDSeptember 2, 17:30 / Canada / Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem / USD/CAD**September 2, 21:00 / US / Publication of the "Beige Book" / rate – 3.75% / USDX
In these days, speeches from representatives of leading central banks are also expected. Their comments usually trigger volatility in the currency market, as they can indicate the regulators' future plans regarding interest rates.