A sharp rout in gold prices after the record high of $5,594 sparked investor concern, but UBS analysts say the fundamental drivers for further gains remain intact. After a 9% one‑day slump and a brief slide toward $4,400, the instrument settled below the psychological $5,000 level. UBS strategist Vincent Hini describes the current volatility as “a reset, not a change in momentum.”

According to the bank’s report, the current $4,500–$4,800 range is justified by fundamentals. Support for the instrument should come from two expected Federal Reserve rate cuts by the year‑end and robust buying activity of market makers. UBS has raised its forecast for central bank gold purchases from 863 tonnes in 2025 to 950 tonnes in 2026. Inflows into gold ETFs are also estimated at about 825 tonnes.

Analysts draw parallels with intermediate pullbacks in 1974 and 2020, after which the long‑term uptrend resumed. Despite the recent turbulence, spot prices in 2026 remain about 15% above levels at the start of the year, underlining the asset’s resilience.

UBS maintains a bullish outlook for the year: analysts expect the price to reach $6,200 per ounce by mid‑summer, followed by consolidation around $5,900 in December. The bank recommends investors keep a few percent of their portfolios in gold to hedge geopolitical and inflation risks.