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White House assesses economic risks of oil at $200 per barrel as Iran conflict persists

White House assesses economic risks of oil at $200 per barrel as Iran conflict persists

The Trump administration has begun assessing the economic implications of oil rising to $200 a barrel, Bloomberg reported on March 26, 2026, as officials weigh the effects of a prolonged military confrontation with Iran on global markets.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed concern that a large supply shortfall could trigger shock inflation. He said that the duration of the current confrontation would be the key variable determining the size of the supply gap and the resilience of the US economy. The Treasury estimates that the temporary shortfall in global markets already ranges from 10 million to 14 million barrels per day.
Iran’s military command, Khatam al‑Anbiya, said that continued joint US‑Israeli operations would be a condition for prices reaching $200. A representative of the headquarters, Ebrahim Zolfakari, said regional security is the only guarantee of stable prices. Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, prompting Washington to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
The White House is seeking to avert a critical jump in gasoline prices by increasing physical availability of crude. Current measures include the temporary lifting of sanctions on Iranian and Russian crude that is already on tankers at sea. Analysts warn that the Federal Reserve could shift to a tighter policy stance if the oil shock becomes prolonged.

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