Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 157.83 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero level, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar and missed a good downward move.

In the second half of the day, the market will be watching the U.S. services business activity index, the composite PMI, weekly jobless claims, and the foreign trade balance, as well as speeches by FOMC members Christopher Waller, Beth Hammack, and Austan Goolsbee. Jobless claims have gained particular importance following the weak labor market reports released earlier this week. Differences of opinion within the Federal Reserve could add further uncertainty to the market, as the positions of hawkish policymakers and those favoring a cautious approach differ significantly. All of this will affect the dollar through expectations for interest rates and U.S. Treasury yields.

For the yen, dollar dynamics remain important, but the actions of the Bank of Japan itself have moved to the forefront. The Bank continues to intervene, and the yen has continued to strengthen against this backdrop. Coordinated steps with the United States have given the intervention additional weight, and USD/JPY continued to decline during today's European session. Weak U.S. data could further strengthen this move, while strong U.S. statistics could slow it down, but reversing the market's current direction will be difficult as interventions continue.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point is reached around 156.65 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 157.35 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 157.35, I will exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. A rise in the pair can be expected today, but the upward potential is rather limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero level and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.18 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 156.65 and 157.35 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 156.18 level is updated (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.50, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero level and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.65 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 156.18 and 155.50 can be expected.

What Is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profit can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profit can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making trading decisions spontaneously based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.