Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro Currency

The first price test at 1.0742 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had risen significantly from the zero mark, limiting the further upward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not buy it. After a short period, another test at 1.0742 under the same conditions led to the implementation of scenario #2 for selling, resulting in a significant drop in the pair by more than 30 points. The released statistics on the eurozone and lending did not help the euro, and now the focus needs to shift to important reports related to inflation. The main personal consumption expenditure index, changes in population spending and income levels – these are the data that will determine the market direction. Strong reports – I buy the dollar and sell the euro. If the data coincides with economists' forecasts, the chances for buyers of the European currency to continue rising at the end of the week will increase. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0735 (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to the level of 1.0775. At 1.0775, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Euro growth today can be expected only after US inflation data declines. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and only starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0713, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Expect growth to reach opposite levels of 1.0735 and 1.0775.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro today after reaching the level of 1.0713 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0671, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return in case of a lack of buyer activity near the daily maximum and strong US statistics indicating sustained inflationary pressure. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and only starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0735, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downwards. Expect a decrease to opposite levels of 1.0713 and 1.0671.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.