See also
The gold rush has become a new bullish driver for XAU/USD, although the World Gold Council (WGC) acknowledges that the old drivers remain intact. In 2024, central banks purchased 1,045 tons of gold worth $96 billion. While they have been net buyers for 15 years, their buying activity doubled after the start of the Ukraine conflict, fueled by de-dollarization and reserve diversification efforts.
According to the WGC, central bank demand will remain strong in 2025, joined by investors in specialized exchange-traded funds (ETFs), further supporting price growth. Global gold demand increased by 1% to 4,974 tons last year.
The weakening U.S. dollar is also boosting XAU/USD, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the "help rally" for other currencies in the Forex market. The key reason is Donald Trump's decision to delay tariffs on Mexico and Canada until March 1. The USD index initially surged when the tariffs were announced but later retreated following negotiations between Washington, Ottawa, and Mexico City. Since gold is priced in U.S. dollars, a weaker USD often acts as a catalyst for gold price surges.
Rising geopolitical tensions are playing a crucial role in gold's upward movement. Donald Trump's plans to deploy U.S. troops to Gaza, relocate Palestinians, and clear unexploded ordnance have triggered concern among Middle Eastern nations, increasing safe-haven demand for gold. Notably, Trump has previously floated controversial geopolitical ideas, such as annexing Greenland and making Canada the 51st U.S. state.
On the daily chart, gold is showing signs of an inside bar formation, indicating market uncertainty. The previous inside bar breakout provided an opportunity for long positions at $2,677 per ounce. Given the current momentum, holding these positions and adding on pullbacks remains a viable strategy.
With strong fundamentals and technical signals aligned, gold's rally remains well-supported, increasing the likelihood of new all-time highs in the near future.
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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Five weeks ago, the total short position on the U.S. dollar against major currencies stopped increasing, which gave reason to believe the dollar might begin an offensive in the currency
Israel and Iran are exchanging missile strikes, but it seems markets are trying to play their own game, assuming that this conflict will not cross the nuclear threshold
The final trading day of last week ended on an uncertain note. Reacting to Middle East developments, the EUR/USD pair sharply declined on Friday, retreating from the multi-year price high
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