Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 142.64 occurred when the MACD indicator had already significantly moved below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. Shortly afterward, another test of 142.64 occurred while the MACD was in oversold territory, which activated Buy Scenario #2 and resulted in a 30-pip rise in the pair.

Despite strong data on Japan's services PMI, the yen lost part of its gains against the U.S. dollar. This unexpected movement sparked discussion among economists regarding the underlying fundamentals driving the FX market. On one hand, the services PMI indicates continued growth in a key sector of Japan's economy. Exceeding market expectations is typically a bullish signal for the national currency, reflecting strong domestic demand and growth potential. On the other hand, global factors—such as the outlook for U.S. monetary policy and trade tariffs—continue to exert pressure on the yen. Many market participants appear to be taking profits ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, the outcome of which will be announced this evening.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 143.35 (green line on the chart) with a target of 143.88 (thicker green line). At 143.88, I intend to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip pullback. It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and deeper pullbacks.

Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 143.06, while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a bullish reversal—expected targets: 143.35 and 143.88.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a break below 143.06 (red line on the chart), which is expected to lead to a sharp decline. The key target for sellers will be 142.50, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately go long (targeting a 20–25 pip bounce in the opposite direction). Significant downward pressure is unlikely to return today.

Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 143.35 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would cap the pair's upside and lead to a bearish reversal—expected targets: 143.06 and 142.50.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.