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Today, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is holding modest intraday losses.
Uncertainty surrounding the ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks, along with rising tensions between Estonia and Russia following Sunday's detention of a Greek oil tanker, have emerged as key factors supporting oil prices. According to US Special Representative Steve Witkoff, any agreement with Iran must include a commitment to cease uranium enrichment.
Additionally, some selling pressure on the US dollar is providing further support to oil prices, helping to limit the downside. The market is increasingly recognizing the possibility that the Federal Reserve may further cut interest rates this year, and the recent unexpected downgrade of the US government's credit rating has triggered fresh dollar selling today.
However, the upward potential for oil remains limited due to mixed macroeconomic data from China, which dampens the optimism sparked by the recently announced 90-day trade truce between the US and China. As such, it would be prudent for traders to wait for stronger buying signals before preparing for a continuation of the recent recovery from the monthly low.
Technical Outlook:On the 4-hour chart, a sustained move above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), coupled with a breakout above the key psychological level of $62.00, would serve as the first confirmation of a bullish bias.
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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
The macroeconomic data from the UK published last week looks frankly weak—everything is in the red zone, meaning worse than expected. Nevertheless, the pound continues to climb upward regardless
Five weeks ago, the total short position on the U.S. dollar against major currencies stopped increasing, which gave reason to believe the dollar might begin an offensive in the currency
Israel and Iran are exchanging missile strikes, but it seems markets are trying to play their own game, assuming that this conflict will not cross the nuclear threshold
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