empty
04.06.2025 02:16 PM
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on June 4th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1391 level and planned to base trading decisions around it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. A rise and formation of a false breakout near 1.1391 provided an entry point for selling the euro, but as you can see on the chart, there was no significant decline in the pair. The technical picture was revised for the second half of the day.

This image is no longer relevant

To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:

PMI data for all eurozone countries except Germany for May were revised upward, which restored bullish momentum to the EUR/USD pair — although it didn't lead to a major upward move. There is still plenty of data ahead that could change the situation. Attention will turn to the ADP employment change data for May, as well as the U.S. services PMI and composite PMI. The day will end with speeches by FOMC members Raphael Bostic and Lisa D. Cook. In case of a decline on strong data, focus will shift to defending the 1.1361 support, formed during the first half of the day. A false breakout there would be a signal to buy EUR/USD, aiming for an update of the high around 1.1413. A breakout and retest of this range would confirm a proper entry point, with a move toward the 1.1453 area. The ultimate target would be 1.1490, where I would take profits.

If EUR/USD declines and there is no buying activity around 1.1361, pressure on the pair will return, leading to a larger drop. In that case, bears could push the pair down to 1.1314. Only after a false breakout form would I consider buying the euro. Alternatively, I would open long positions immediately on a rebound from 1.1270, aiming for an intraday upward correction of 30–35 points.

To Open Short Positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers did everything they could in the first half of the day, but it wasn't enough to resume the downward trend in the euro. At the same time, it's hard to say that pressure on the euro has fully returned. It's better to wait for the U.S. statistics and the market's reaction before making any decisions.

A false breakout near the 1.1413 resistance will be a signal to sell, aiming for a drop toward 1.1361 support. A breakout and consolidation below this range will be a suitable scenario for selling, targeting 1.1314. The ultimate target would be 1.1270, where I would take profits.

If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day and there is no active bearish action around 1.1413, where moving averages (favoring the bears) are also located slightly below, buyers could achieve a larger rally and update 1.1453. I would only sell after a failed consolidation at this level. Alternatively, I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.1490, targeting a 30–35 point downward correction.

This image is no longer relevant

The COT (Commitments of Traders) report for May 27 showed a reduction in both long and short positions. However, the advantage still lies with the buyers. Traders are preparing for the next ECB meeting, where another rate cut is expected. However, many economists believe this could be the last cut before the regulator pauses for an extended period, potentially strengthening the euro in the short term. Add to that the upcoming U.S. GDP and labor market reports, and the week promises to be quite intense.

According to the COT report, long non-commercial positions decreased by 1,716 to 204,326. Short non-commercial positions fell by 6,737 to 124,852. Thus, the gap between long and short positions narrowed by 2,778.

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:Trading is occurring below the 30- and 50-period moving averages, indicating a decline in the euro.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are based on the author's analysis of the H1 chart and differ from the classical daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands:

In the event of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.1361 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

  • Moving Average: Defines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise. 50-period (marked in yellow); 30-period (marked in green)
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – 12-period; Slow EMA – 26-period; SMA – 9-period
  • Bollinger Bands: 20-period
  • Non-commercial traders: Speculators like individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes
  • Long non-commercial positions: Total long open positions held by non-commercial traders
  • Short non-commercial positions: Total short open positions held by non-commercial traders
  • Net non-commercial position: The difference between short and long positions among non-commercial traders
Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

Recommended Stories

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on July 4? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair once again plummeted, but this time the drop in the British currency lasted only five minutes

Paolo Greco 07:16 2025-07-04 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on July 4? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair traded throughout Thursday, both before and after the publication of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment data

Paolo Greco 06:34 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on July 4: The Dollar Rose — and Then Fell Again

The GBP/USD currency pair on Thursday showed nearly identical movements to the EUR/USD pair. This is not surprising, as over the last five months it's not the euro

Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on July 4: U.S. Independence Day

The EUR/USD currency pair traded quite expressively on Thursday. For most of the day, we observed a low-volatility sideways movement, and as soon as U.S. labor market and unemployment data

Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-04 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on July 3rd (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.3659 level and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and review what happened

Miroslaw Bawulski 15:34 2025-07-03 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on July 3rd (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.1784 level as the key reference point for market entry. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there

Miroslaw Bawulski 15:29 2025-07-03 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on July 3? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair plunged like a stone dropped from a skyscraper, prompting currency analysts to immediately search for the reasons

Paolo Greco 06:53 2025-07-03 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on July 3? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair attempted to begin a new round of downward correction, and the result of this attempt

Paolo Greco 06:33 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on July 3: Manipulation for the Sake of a New Rally?

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair crashed for no apparent reason. There was no major news in either the UK or the US that could have triggered a nearly 200-point

Paolo Greco 03:45 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on July 3: The Euro Holds Up, the Pound Plunges

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair declined slightly but generally showed no inclination to follow the British pound, which had crashed by nearly 200 points. The euro remained above

Paolo Greco 03:45 2025-07-03 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.