Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday, but we doubt that the data will significantly impact traders today—especially today. As a reminder, Donald Trump intends to raise tariffs on all countries from his "blacklist" due to the sluggish progress of trade deal negotiations. Overnight, a new escalation began in the military conflict between Israel and the U.S. Thus, news related to these topics will take center stage.

Nonetheless, Germany will release the second estimate of May inflation, the Eurozone will publish its industrial production report, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is due in the U.S.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing notable among Friday's fundamental events. No important speeches are officially scheduled, but it is almost certain that important statements will occur throughout the day. Trump has already stated that the U.S. was not involved in the strikes on Iran, while Iranian authorities responded that they plan to strike not only Israeli military targets but U.S. facilities as well.

We believe the primary concern for the market right now is the ongoing trade war, which shows no signs of resolution. Additionally, factors such as widespread unrest in the U.S., Trump's proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill," the progress—or lack thereof—in trade negotiations with 75 countries, new tariffs, increases in existing tariffs, and the military conflict between Israel and Iran, which involves direct U.S. participation, are also significant. The U.S. dollar may find support amid the tensions between Israel and Iran, given America's direct involvement in the situation.

Conclusions:

On the week's final trading day, both currency pairs may remain in a high-volatility storm mode. We do not attempt to forecast daily movements, as they will entirely depend on incoming news related to the above-mentioned topics. It is possible to trade using technical levels today but be prepared for frequent reversals and sharp price moves.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.